Here's still one more version of a short-seller's nightmare. What happens when froth turns to investible? What happens when you see behavior that clearly indicates froth and then, somehow, the fundamentals change, and the stock takes off?
We have seen that recently in so many situations that it is pretty dazzling. It was one thing to see Genworth (NYSE: GNW) (Cramer's Take) back from the dead on its own.
But then we had Regions (NYSE: RF) (Cramer's Take), Zions (NASDAQ: ZION) (Cramer's Take), Huntington (NASDAQ: HBAN) (Cramer's Take), KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) (Cramer's Take) and Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB) (Cramer's Take) recover from their deathbeds. They all seemed frothy at the time. Now, however, they are "turnarounds," which, while one step above froth, has a ring of authenticity to it. Fifth Third, in particular, raised so much money that Goldman Sachs recommended it as a conservative regional. From zero to hero! Anti-froth!
Last week you got total revenge of the alleged froth. It started with AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take), which would have gone nowhere if it hadn't split, but once it had, the shorts figured it was a layup.
Then we got the change in management and the profit number -- however specious you might regard the profit given who and what is owed -- and suddenly you had an investible short squeeze.
I am still, as I told a caller last night, trying to get my arms around Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take).
There were very specific profit accruals to other securities that, barring house price appreciation of tremendous magnitude, should have made the common stocks all but worthless. These companies, like AIG, were basically in reorganization, meaning that the common will most likely be canceled and the bonds take over.
Somehow, though, like with AIG, the government chose not to wipe out the common stock worth, just annihilate the preferreds. It would be outrageous if anything good was given to the common and nothing to the preferreds, but that's what the common trades like, and who is to stop it from trading that way? To me, it looks like Fannie and Freddie have gone from total froth to somewhat speculative, which makes using them as a benchmark for too much froth and therefore selling stocks on it kind of a dubious game plan.
And that's really the point. When froth begets investment, when the public is speculating and it turns out the public is investing, then you can't make a big bet simply because you see froth, because it is disappearing right before your eyes.
The next thing you know? E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) (Cramer's Take) and CIT (NYSE: CIT) (Cramer's Take) take off and it turns out that their quarters, too, were darned good!
Random musings: I do like the Emdeon deal. It will be winner. ... Please check out my friend Matt Horween's first part of his six-parter about what the heck is going on in this country and why it matters for your investments.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-11-2009 @ 12:01PM
tom campbell said...
Why would anyone listen to him?