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Need another 'green shoot' to bolster your investment sentiment? Try this one: confidence in the global economy surged to a 22-month high in August on signs the worst global recession since the end of World War II is nearing an end.The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index soared to 58.12 this month from 39.13 in July. The survey sampled more than 2,300 Bloomberg users August 3-7.
The U.S. respondents component rose to 47.3 from 29.5; Western Europe, to 41.1 from 31.0; and Asia, 74.2 from 59.4.
Economic Analysis: It's way to early for policy makers to start thinking about increasing interest rates, ending fiscal stimulus (cutting spending, raising taxes), and withdrawing support for credit markets, but the world's major economic regions continue to amass data that points to an increase in demand, and its showing up in surveys on sentiment. Still, investors should keep in mind that the recession removed a great deal of buying power and output from the global economy.
What would really be pleasant to see in the quarter ahead? Signs of increased consumer spending in China/Asia, Brazil/Latin America, and Europe to offset reductions in U.S. consumer spending. The global economy will need multiple engines of growth to achieve adequate, sustained GDP growth.
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