"Like a sailboat waiting for a gust of wind, Carnival (NYSE: CCL) hasn't had any means of propulsion lately; in fact, they've been anchored by swine flu and sluggish travel demand," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter.
Nevertheless, in his Half-Priced Stocks, he remains optimisticbullish, noting "Eventually these storm clouds will clear." Here's his bullish long-term outlook for the cruise ship opertor.
"Fortunately, these negatives are macro-level factors, not company-specific issues. All things considered, the world's largest cruise operator is performing admirably in this tepid environment.
"The company has carried more than two million passengers to exotic destinations around the globe over the past three months.
"That's about 45,000 more than last year, enough to soak up most of the recently added capacity. Unfortunately, while the firm's cabins have been fully occupied, passengers haven't been spending quite as freely as usual.
"Ticket sales and onboard purchases like cocktails, souvenirs, etc. were off about -13% for the quarter.
"As a result, net revenue yields (a key industry metric indicating the amount of cash squeezed from each room) dipped from $185 to $154. Still, that adds up to net sales in excess of $2.3 billion, with over 15 million available berth days during the period.
"Profits sank by about one-third to $264 million, or $0.33 per share. But, I'm much more concerned with future results than what happened yesterday -- and there have been several positive developments to report.
"The sharp drop in crude oil prices have eased Carnival's pain at the pump -- fuel costs plunged more than -40% to about $300 per metric ton.
"More importantly, booking volumes are running about +25% ahead of last year's pace, and customers are shelling out more for their tickets than they were just a few months ago.
"Carnival is still discounting ticket prices to encourage travel. If you're thinking of taking a cruise, now is the time. Demand is firming along many routes, and even under these challenging conditions the company will still deliver earnings of more than $2.00 per share this year.
"The fact is, more and more families are finding cruises as an enjoyable and cost-effective vacation. Carnival is anticipating 14 new luxury liners to hit the waters within the next three years.
"A rising economic tide will lift all boats, and I expect CCL to rally more than 60% as it steams towards a revised Fair Value of $44."
Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a free daily overview of the favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.










