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Wal-Mart beats Wall Street in Q2, but same-store sales need help

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Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), which reported earnings on Thursday, had something of a mixed second quarter. Net sales of roughly $100 billion came in below estimates, according analysts. Net income, however, fared better. The world's largest retailer made 88 cents per share from continuing operations, a figure that was two pennies ahead of analysts' projections.

The quarter produced neither significant growth nor precipitous decline for the most part. The top line decreased by only 1.4%, and the bottom line expanded by a mere 2 cents. Not terribly exciting. The metric that did decline a little more noticeably was free cash flow. Wal-Mart generated 18% less free cash during the last six months than it did in the comparable period a year ago, according to the company press release.

The same-store sales statistics were disappointing. Excluding fuel, overall domestic comps declined 1.2%. Comps were more robust in the year-ago frame. They were also healthier in the previous quarter.

Indeed, I have no choice but to feel negative about this. As management correctly states in the press release, consumers continue to be pressured by the economy. Wal-Mart does offer a value-based inventory, and it has a relatively competent marketing engine in place to communicate such a fact to shoppers, so I expected better from the same-store metrics. According to Bloomberg, management cited deflation in the grocery aisle, as well as a "more selective" customer, as being responsible in part for the weakness. I don't know, maybe that's so, but I have to believe that Wal-Mart didn't work as hard as it could have.

Still, it doesn't mean the end of Wal-Mart is near. What it does mean is that the company will have to be certain that it is in as strong a position as possible going into the holiday season. Plus, as my colleague Zac Bissonnette discussed back in June, management wants to retain all the shopping activity it may have captured during the difficult times. Wal-Mart doesn't want its customers heading on over to competitors such as Target (NYSE: TGT) and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) when the recession finally dies out.

Overall, though, I don't think shareholders have a lot to worry about. Wal-Mart should be okay so long as it can continue to deliver good cash flows and properly leverage its iconic logo. Nothing should be taken for granted. Now is the time to aggressively plan for the rest of the year. Wal-Mart has two more quarters to go; let's hope the company uses them to full advantage to make it a great fiscal year for those who own the stock.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 03:03 PM

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