Last week we looked at expectations for some retail earnings. More shopping mall favorites are reporting second-quarter results this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for significant earnings growth from some of them.
Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO), the teen-focused retailer spun off from Macy's (NYSE: M) in 1998, is expected to post a second-quarter profit that is 44.6% higher than a year ago, or $0.56 per share. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be 19.7% higher, or $451.3 million. For the full year, the forecast so far is for $2.98 per share (+25.8%) on $2.2 billion (+14.6%). Earnings of the New York-based company have matched estimates in recent quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 13.9%, which is better than the retail industry average and rival Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF). Aeropostale's earnings multiple is 12x, and this debt-free company's cash flow from operations swung into positive territory in the first quarter. The First Call consensus recommendation is to buy ARO; The Motley Fool identified it as a Wall Street favorite. Shares are down a couple of bucks from the 52-week high of $38.74 back in July, but are still 123.0% higher year to date.
In its second quarter, Sears Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) arranged a $4 billion loan from GE Capital and announced the Kmart Design Center. Sears is expected to report that its earnings grew 38.7% from a year ago to $0.31 per share. However, revenue for the quarter is expected to have fallen 8.7% to $10.7 billion. Analysts also expect its revenue to fall further in the third quarter and for it to swing to a loss. It topped earnings expectations in the past two quarters, including a surprise profit in the first quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%, a bit better than that of rival JCPenney Company Inc. (NYSE: JCP). InvestorPlace suggests that SHLD may be ripe for upgrades. At $77.10, the share price is 54.6% higher than three months ago but still 17.1% lower than a year ago.
Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST), the nation's number two off-price apparel retailer, saw a new director elected to its board in the second quarter. Earnings for the three-month period that ended in July are expected to be 34.1% higher to $0.82 per share. Revenue is expected to be 6.8% higher, or $1.8 billion. For the full year, the forecast so far is for $3.00 per share (+22.3%) on $7.0 billion (+7.5%). Earnings of the California-based company have been in line with expectations in recent quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 13.8%, which is better than larger rival TJX (see below). Ross's earnings multiple is 14x, and this dividend-paying company had more cash on hand than long-term debt in its previous report. InvestorPlace named it one of the best of Nasdaq stocks for thriving in the recession. Shares reached a 52-week high of $45.95 recently and are still up 26.2% from three months ago.
In its second quarter, TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX) saw the end of an investigation related to a cyber attack in 2005/2006, as well said it would raise some cash. Analysts are looking for earnings of $0.60 per share, or 30.0% higher than a year ago. Revenue is expected to total $4.7 billion, an increase of 2.1% from a year ago. For the full year, the forecast so far is for $2.36 per share (+14.8%) on $19.6 billion (+2.9%). Earnings of this dividend-paying company have topped expectations in recent quarters, by as much as four cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.2% and the earnings multiple is 14x. TJX had more cash on hand than long-term debt in its previous report, and its cash flow from operations has increased in the past few quarters. The analysts' consensus recommendation remains to buy TJX. At $35.09, the share price is 30.7% higher than three months ago, but it is still 2.7% lower than a year ago.
San Francisco-based children's apparel retailer Gymboree Corp. (NASDAQ: GYMB) is expected to report a second-quarter profit that is 28.9% higher than a year ago, or $0.38 per share. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be 4.5% higher, or $215.0 million. But so far analysts expect earnings to be essentially flat, year over year, in the third quarter and for the full year. In recent quarters, earnings have beat estimates by two or three pennies per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.0%, which is better than rival Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE). Gymboree's earnings multiple is 11x, and this debt-free company has seen short interest falling off in recent months. The consensus recommendation is to buy GYMB; SmartMoney liked its return on invested capital. Shares reached a 52-week high of $43.73 recently, and they are still up 57.0% year to date.
Other retailers expected to post earnings growth include BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ) and The Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE). Jamba Inc. (NASDAQ: JMBA) is expected to have swung to profit.
But this week brings plenty of expected earnings decliners too, as July retail numbers would suggest. They include AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) (down 96.3%!), Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS), Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL), Gamestop Corp. (NYSE: GME), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) (EPS essentially flat), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), PetSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PETM), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). Those expected to post quarterly losses include Bon Ton Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: BONT), Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE), Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (NASDAQ: PSUN), and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS).
A few tech companies are also reporting this week too, including Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ). For a fiscal third quarter that included an acquisition and the introduction of a new mini PC, HP's profit is expected to be 4.4% higher than a year ago, or $0.90 per share. Revenue for the quarter is expected to have slipped 2.8% to $27.3 billion. For the full year, analysts are looking for $3.75 per share (+3.5%) on $113.2 billion (-4.3%). In recent quarters, earnings of this dividend-paying company have met expectations or beat them by a penny or two per share, but iStockAnalyst thinks HP may beat the Street view. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.2%, which is better than that of competitor Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL). HP's earnings multiple is 11x, and analysts recommend buying HPQ. Shares have surged 25.9% in the past three months, but are still 3.3% lower than a year ago.
Open Text Corp. (NASDAQ: OTEX) is also expected to report earnings growth this week. However, the forecast for Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A), Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI), and NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) is for lower earnings, while Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) is expected to have widened its net loss.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-17-2009 @ 2:10AM
Beltway Greg said...
Fasten your seat belts. Looks like we could be experiencing a little in-flight turbulence for the next few weeks. Dow could break 9000 on the downside but I don't see it dropping much below 8900.