Did anyone listen to Bill Isaac yesterday? Did anyone listen to the man that was instrumental in solving the banking crisis of 1987-1991 when he was on "Squawk Box?"
I don't think they did. If they did, they wouldn't be nearly as fretful about housing or the bank stocks or the mortgage problem or the toxic bonds as they seem to be, because Isaac talked about 1,600 banks that had to be closed and about how there simply was no place to put the bad assets at all. He talked about major banks collapsing day after day after day, the largest banks in the most important regions in the country. He talked about how hardly a day went by when a bank that they were not prepared to deal with went under because of mortgage loans.
Does that sound like today's situation at all? Does that sound like today, when there are a half dozen institutions wanting a really bad Texas bank, and there were a whole bunch of firms that wanted Colonial (NASDAQ: COBK) (Cramer's Take)? Does that sound like today, when private equity wants in so badly and only asks that it has the same tier-one capital as any bank in the running? Does that sound like today, when you have Spanish bank BBVA that wants to be one of the top 10 banks in the country and wants 10% of the deposits from and might not be that lucky?
I have read and heard endlessly about how the mortgage problem is going to sink us. I am sure that there was a time when it could have; now it is all about who is going to take advantage of the situation.
That's why the stock market doesn't get hit any more. We know that if Huntington (NASDAQ: HBAN) (Cramer's Take) or Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB) (Cramer's Take) or Regions (NYSE: RF) (Cramer's Take) wanted to buy all the failed banks in their areas assisted by the FDIC with deals like the ones that were done in Isaac's time, ones that worked perfectly, there would be plenty of shareholder money around to do it, plenty more coming through secondaries and the problem would lead to some great investments.
It must be so difficult for people who don't follow the details to grasp how the mortgage "problem" switched to the mortgage "opportunity" three months ago, when housing in the hardest hit areas (California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona) bottomed. But the stocks told you. And it looks like they will tell you again, today.
When will the editors who demand these stories be written deal with the facts, the changing landscape, the difference between where we were and where we are?
I know when -- when the risk is so nominal that there will be no more money left to be made.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
8-21-2009 @ 10:26AM
Iridium said...
We have far fewer banks to fail today. We used to have tens of thousands of local and regional banks. Today we have 3-5 major banks in every city, and if you are lucky you night have a regional bank still standing.
So it goes to say that right now one bank failing is the equivelant of 1000 banks failing in the 1980s.
When one major company goes bankrupt today it takes down the market cap and purchasing power of thousands of small businesses that existed 20 years ago.
That is why you are wrong Jim.
The mortgage meltdown is still radioactive. We have never had a higher level of forclosures, and unsold inventory. Home values are still falling. The huge July sales number can be attributed to foreign investors buying up billions in US property, not individual sales.
How can we trust a stock market that priced in a sustained V shaped recovery months ago. March to June already priced in the recovery, what is going on right now is just creating a superheated bubble. Are the indexes going to return to pre-crash levels before any recovery actually starts?
The excuses of the market are really getting long in the tooth. It has become apparent to the majority of Americans that the stock market is a con. They will never invest in the market again. Why invest in something that destroys your fortune every 5-10 years.
8-21-2009 @ 10:27AM
once loved cars said...
translation: Prepare for a new wave of mortgage meltdowns.
8-21-2009 @ 10:43AM
Shawn Patrick said...
Cramer,
You've had big misses and big hits in the past. You are so far off here that I can't stand it. The credit markets are about to get the "real" wave of material issues that they will have to deal with and the banks are in no position to weather the storm nor is the Gov't able to fund the absorption.
Commercial loans are about to default at a substantial level. Bank/fund failures will jump substantially. Corporate spending and hiring are anemic at best and not soon improving. The commercial and corporate hardships are going to hit a large percentage of highly educated professionals that are now hanging on by a thread.
When you state that areas like Nevada and California are bottoming out, you are making a big mistake! As a resident of Nevada and California for 17+ years now working in NYC for 5 years, I can tell you that my word out West is that many traditionally strong and responsible citizens are ready to throw in the towell and walk away from their obligations because as Talya Shire used to say to Rocky, "You can't win!!" They are so under water, even the most inspired individuals can't envision a recovery. Help is NOT on the way for these poor souls.
Though Talya seemed to always be wrong, what happened to Rocky? He ended up punch drunk and broke! Truth can be stranger than fiction and the tale you're spinning has all the makings of George Clooney and the crew heading out for a nice day of fishing.
You will be held accountable for these words. As Arnold say's, '
"I'll be back" to remind you of this day sooner than later. See you in 60 days max!!
Maybe I watch too many movies!! Anyone for Dumb and Dumber??
Shawn
8-21-2009 @ 10:50AM
Jim in AR said...
I am going back to the monkey and dart board for my investment advice.
8-21-2009 @ 10:50AM
catherine pierce said...
Barney Frank needs to be history. come on, Massachusetts, vote this guy OUT OF OFFICE!
8-21-2009 @ 11:25AM
Rick said...
I suppose that if I were working for a business channel, I would be promoting everything in the pantry too.
8-21-2009 @ 11:30AM
ebrandler34 said...
Let's review the last three days of Cramer posts:
Wednesday: Don't worry about China's speculation bubble.
Thursday: Don't worry about commercial real estate.
Friday: Don't worry about residential real estate.
Hey, I still like the guy, but after 3 unadulterated "shills" in defense of a flaming hot bull run during this week alone, he had better not break out the "I warned you to take profits" once the market hits the skids.
I think the guy has leased out his integrity to coax the scared money off the sidelines. The question is "What was his price?"
8-21-2009 @ 11:44AM
mark said...
Jim Cramer is simply a Pawn in a Kings game...no, he's more like a puppet on the old Howdy Doody show. Jim is nothing more than a "Hoo-Haw" man, and has proven that time and time again....He is entertainment...that's all.
Anyone who spends their liquidity right now is a fool...especially if you follow Jim's advice. The second wave has not come into shore yet...commercial mortgage loans, nor have the bonds tanked yet, and the wild card in all this is not China (as everyone suspects), the wild card is Technology!...You folks have not a clue what's "really" going on behind closed research doors. The leaps forward are astounding...and most of it is right here in America. America will rise from these ashes of economic despair through the miracle of technology. Life on Earth as we know it is about to drastically be altered!
Watch this video attached to this story...I promise it'll make your hair stand up like chicken skin.
http://www.mindblink.org/2009/03/howard-gardner-five-minds-for-future.html
8-21-2009 @ 11:43AM
Edward said...
The seeds for this disaster were planted in 2003 when the Federal Reserve set artificially low interest rates. In the past five years housing has risen on average 180%, meanwhile wages optimistically have risen 17%. There has to be some correlation between what you pay for a home and what you make, this wage to housing matrix is way out of wack. The Federal Reserve by having artificially low interest rates have caused this speculative real estate market where housing has risen way out of reason. The low to middle class homeowner has been trapped in a mortgage that they are upside down in. Its simple if you bought a home in the last two years you owe twice what the home is actually worth. The Federal Reserve caused this over valuation so the increased real estate valves would allow the Government to collect increased taxes. Call it the war tax, someone has to pay for the trillion dollar Iraq war. Lower interest will not help the homeowner who cannot afford the increased taxes and the increases in insurance.
8-21-2009 @ 11:45AM
Edward said...
Remember the first step in the recovery is to make the sheep think things are better. Sheep do you really think things are better? Now remember this is the same Washington that told us all those lies used to justify the Iraq war. A war that has cost the American taxpayer over a trillion dollars and has collapsed our economy. A war that is illegal and immoral. A war that is responsible for the death of over a hundred thousand Iraqi’s. So do you really believe Washington? I for one do not. As far as the economy is concerned well, we deserve the much reduced standard of living that we are now about to experience. Washington is controlled by a oligarchy of special interest and a foreign government and does not represent the interest of the American people. Rather the American people have become just another commodity to be spent , used and traded for the benefit of this oligarchy and it is our own fault for letting this happen.
8-21-2009 @ 12:36PM
Dennis said...
The mortgage crisis is over? Interesting, but WRONG! Front page of the LA Times this morning: "Foreclosures Strike Prime Borrowers". The fact is, as long as unemployment continues to rise, more people, even those with good credit but who lost their job, will lose their homes. Cramer unfortunately writes as an investor from the top looking down, and doesn't see the rising water from his mountaintop.
8-21-2009 @ 12:39PM
psaund9860 said...
What you need to understand is that Cramer is like all the rest of the analysts on CNBC, FOX, and BLOOMBERG. They are at it for the ratings. People will not watch you if you are all "Gloom and Doom". So of course he is going to paint a rosey picture, no matter what. How about the new phrase "Not as bad as expected"....they are reporting fluff to you so you won't feel so bad.
8-21-2009 @ 12:55PM
JP Morgan's ghost said...
Jim's doing a great job setting up the sheep! America is being broken down and busted and when we have everyone so desperate and living on the sidewalks they will work for nothing like the Communist Chinese and we will buy up everything for pennies on the dollar! He's our boy! Bought out the USA back in 1913 and been fleecing it up and down ever since. We're big oil bankersand the world is our game. Easy to pay off Washington with the 34,000 "lobbyists"! Even install some chump "president" too! Money talks and BS walks and we have it all! David Rockefeller is doing his grandpa proud! Might be cheaper for us to just get rid of about 6 billion of you in the end s machines have replaced humans for a lot of manufacturing. Maybe some "flu"?
8-21-2009 @ 2:32PM
sjannese said...
KRAMER[as in seinfeld]!!!!.........YOU 2-BIT WITCHDOCTOR,...........ARE YOU RALLYING THE MARKET FOR A FRIDAY BUCK,........SHAME ON YOU !!..........RES./COMM. SLUMP AIN'T GOIN AWAY FOR AWHILE.
8-21-2009 @ 1:00PM
Bill said...
I like the monkey and dart board suggestion. I stopped watching this guy a long time ago.
8-21-2009 @ 1:01PM
paul feng said...
Jim Stop giving all this BS advice to people.
Read the More Mortgage Meltdown.
Unemployment keeps piling up.
Every body thinks spending will boost recovery.
Banks will not refi or lend. Just all crooks.
Government assistance is just useless and waste of time.
Con---Gress. First 3 letters speak for itself.
Our national debt if going up by 6 million per minute.
SEC can't catch a crook in a mafia convention.
13-15 million illegals are sucking up our resources?
Does this sound like a recovery to you?
Soup Kitchen is next. People. God Help this country
because our leaders can't. Too busy counting money
in the fridge. Thanks to the lobbyist.
8-21-2009 @ 3:31PM
gerald said...
jim kramer, i always thought you were on something when i used to watch your show, know i am certain. maybe for you and your rich friends the economy is coming back , wait i mean actually whats going in the economy dosent effect people like you and your rich friends . your in a diferent level, trump, buffet , nothing will every effect these people, so everybody reading anything they say or do, dont listen , these people basically can use money it self to keep there houses warm and not worry .
8-21-2009 @ 1:49PM
Tim Hegan said...
As my father would say, Cramer doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground. If he's so smart, he should be a BILLIONAIR right now instead of giving his "opinion" about the money markets.
8-21-2009 @ 2:57PM
dan said...
The public who is 70% of the economy for China, Germany, Japan, and South Korea, who are export nations, was driven buy credit. The credit was being driven buy housing prices going up and is now sinking like a rock, at the same time jobs are disappearing like magic dust. So where is the purchasing power going to come from to fuel the economy's of the world? Housing , low wage, jobs?
This is a Wall Street pipe dream which has no sound numbers for growth until the housing hits bottom and jobs come back. And when the jobs start to come back, housing will not be driven up again buy bad lending policies, those days are over, thank god.
The ultimate solution will be new manufacturing jobs in this country and a return of investment in America. Meaning tax the rich and change their behavior, role back the Reagan tax cuts.
8-21-2009 @ 3:00PM
agt4085 said...
Cramer is just looking for some air time cause his show is tanking. Hope the rest of goldman sachs scum bags bite the dust. I wouldn't believe anything that is being said about the economy from anyone. We have been in an artificial economy for a year and a half. We have more fluffers then a porn video on tv and in the news giving us BS. Its hilarious that all the news networks are hiring women who are good to look at but dumb as a box of rocks. To divert our attention. Its not working. There isn't a company out there that isn't cooking or "madoffing" its books to get people to invest.