Did anyone listen to Bill Isaac yesterday? Did anyone listen to the man that was instrumental in solving the banking crisis of 1987-1991 when he was on "Squawk Box?"
I don't think they did. If they did, they wouldn't be nearly as fretful about housing or the bank stocks or the mortgage problem or the toxic bonds as they seem to be, because Isaac talked about 1,600 banks that had to be closed and about how there simply was no place to put the bad assets at all. He talked about major banks collapsing day after day after day, the largest banks in the most important regions in the country. He talked about how hardly a day went by when a bank that they were not prepared to deal with went under because of mortgage loans.
Does that sound like today's situation at all? Does that sound like today, when there are a half dozen institutions wanting a really bad Texas bank, and there were a whole bunch of firms that wanted Colonial (NASDAQ: COBK) (Cramer's Take)? Does that sound like today, when private equity wants in so badly and only asks that it has the same tier-one capital as any bank in the running? Does that sound like today, when you have Spanish bank BBVA that wants to be one of the top 10 banks in the country and wants 10% of the deposits from and might not be that lucky?
I have read and heard endlessly about how the mortgage problem is going to sink us. I am sure that there was a time when it could have; now it is all about who is going to take advantage of the situation.
That's why the stock market doesn't get hit any more. We know that if Huntington (NASDAQ: HBAN) (Cramer's Take) or Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB) (Cramer's Take) or Regions (NYSE: RF) (Cramer's Take) wanted to buy all the failed banks in their areas assisted by the FDIC with deals like the ones that were done in Isaac's time, ones that worked perfectly, there would be plenty of shareholder money around to do it, plenty more coming through secondaries and the problem would lead to some great investments.
It must be so difficult for people who don't follow the details to grasp how the mortgage "problem" switched to the mortgage "opportunity" three months ago, when housing in the hardest hit areas (California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona) bottomed. But the stocks told you. And it looks like they will tell you again, today.
When will the editors who demand these stories be written deal with the facts, the changing landscape, the difference between where we were and where we are?
I know when -- when the risk is so nominal that there will be no more money left to be made.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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Reader Comments (Page 3 of 3)
8-22-2009 @ 9:51AM
Susan McFadden said...
When Cramer speaks, no one should listen...
8-22-2009 @ 10:04AM
ettucat said...
I am certain Libs will not watch this video...they take exception to the truth and do not have the cajones to watch.
The liberal media reportedly did not want this video on You Tube; it was taken off. This link is of the same video, but is routed through Canada . Everyone in America needs to see this before it is yanked off the internet again!
Let's circulate this before the liberals pull it off the Canadian site.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMnSp4qEXNM&NR=1
8-22-2009 @ 10:26AM
jd said...
Cramer advice is the greatest contrarian indicator. Just do the opposite of what he says (remember Bear Stearns). That is why he failed as a hedge fund manager, why he failed as founder of thestreet.com, and why he fails as a stock entertainer.
8-22-2009 @ 3:05PM
alsmony123abc said...
is it cramer???or cramer as in craming a crock down the throats of wanna be r.e investers that dont know what a roller is or a paint brush,,ohhh,i get it,, paint pretty pictures of the good ole pump it up days,,or roll right over you as in"post-mort-em-gage modestly-ificaton as in defication of the facts ,,750 billion lies,,,where the g-d modifications so desperatly needed,,2 more people commited suicide on the day of their eviction in woodbrige va,,,scum suck liars ,,,all of you,,fu,,fu fu fu fu fu..ah! it hasn't even started to rain forclosures yet,,lol,,,lol ptlttttt,,,i farted,,now i feel better...
8-22-2009 @ 4:32PM
mermaid said...
All I can say is wow! I NEVER read in to what commentators like yourself state about what their opinion is about something totally outside of their expertise. You happen to make a comment about a subject in which I am considered an expert in my field of real estate. I seen the headline on AOL and thought it was a mistake. YOU COULD NOT BE MORE WRONG AND MISLEADING.
There are no jobs in this country only unemployment.
50% of American homeowner's are backwards on their home or will be within 1 year. Subprime loans may have created the housing bubble, now A paper with more than 20% down payments are defaulting on loans at staggering rates. The moral hazard has already occurred, nobody wants to continue paying on homes that have lost 30-50% of their value. The administration's approach to modifications is a joke. It's not working, read the fine print of the treasury bill and who it's aimed at. Big banks are profiting by buying each other's toxic waste paper and guess what? Banking stocks go up because of the mark to market sham, not having to take write downs on the toxic assets and being able to post profits. It's actually hilarious that anyone would buy a better economy The stock market rallies because everything is being maniplulated to allow it to happen. The worst of the mortgage problems in this country are yet to come, Commercial loans are the next leg and aggregiously declining markets will set new lows.
MR. CRAMER, I am uncertain as to what it is that you do accept hype the stock market. It would be wise of you to stay away from topics of which you have no expertise. DENNINGER is the only one I know that has the expertise to comment on mortgages.
8-22-2009 @ 10:01PM
william lindblad said...
Under normal circumstances, I don't pay much attention to Mr. Cramer. However, he does have a point in the statistics being presented to the public. Everything point in the recovery direction.
I think that I may be comment #45 and I did read through the list. This list before me goes something like 42 nays, 1 yea and one that I am uncertain to.
I am with the overwhelming consensus, as this is a long way from over, but has Disney said " when you wish upon a star, dreams can come true". I do hope that this fantasy can be pulled off as a lot of people really need to go back to work before it can happen.
At the current division of wealth - which is approx. 50% or better being controlled by 10% of the population
this is doubtful, as the economist who provided these figures only included multi-millionaires or better. He discounted those like Jim, who probably is paid quite well - to promote a load of crap. Include these people and it most likely looks like 70% being controlled by 15%.
Ironic - if the government did not have unlimited credit, the wealthy of the country would probably have more money than the people who print it.
Want a better reason to tell us who good it is?
8-23-2009 @ 12:24PM
Jimmy Doors said...
Dan is on to something.
The RICH were the ones in this country who controlled and influenced business. The RICH shipped jobs for the MIDDLE CLASS overseas, in order to remain RICH.
Now the RICH need to have their taxes brought back to the RIGHT LEVELS. The levels before REAGAN. Maybe, before KENNEDY. In order to support the country they have economically RAPED, for so long.
The RICH passed along their costs to our children, in the form of the REPUBLICAN DEFICITS. Instead of maintaining a low deficit level, so that we'd have a cushion to borrow when times got bad, the BUSHES and REAGAN ran up deficits to pay back the RICH who funded their elections. Now, when we're in trouble, the RICH are fighting attempts to get America back on track. Fighting the stimulus. Fighting healthcare for all. Fighting to keep their taxes artificially low, to KEEP YOUR KIDS PAYING THEIR WAY.
UP WITH TAXES ! GET AMERICA BACK ON TRACK !!