When I hear "light week of earnings" and "light week of data" as I foresee this week, I get excited, because you get to see a full-bore battle between hopeful bulls and desperate bears.
A week in which the biggest earnings announcements are from Winn-Dixie (NASDAQ: WINN) (Cramer's take, Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) Cramer's take and Chico's FAS (NYSE: CHS) Cramer's take, and the biggest report is the Case-Shiller Index, which is sure to give the housing bears a fresh sense of no-bottom/foreclosure-heaven stories regardless of the facts, is a week in which I expect intense skirmishing between mutual funds that want to take stocks higher to generate performance and hedge funds that need stocks lower because they are so far behind the market.
Today the morning battle will play out over more rudiments, more mechanistic issues: "Mutual Fund Monday" vs. options hangover, the former being new money flooding in and the latter being a possibility for large sell orders by 10 a.m. EDT because so many stocks went out above their strikes that people exercised common, hoping for a strong Monday to sell into. This contest should be a close one, but from the looks of things overseas and this morning's S&P 500 futures, the bulls will win this skirmish.
After Monday, we have no catalysts on the horizon at all, but history is so on the bulls' side coming into the Labor Day weekend that the bears better do some serious ginning up to keep a lid on things. It doesn't hurt the bull case that President Obama is vacationing in Martha's Vineyard, giving another leg to the health care story.
Given the hazards and potential retribution visited upon anyone who says the president's agenda is being watered down -- I have already been there and done that, so I doubt they will even bother with me -- it's impossible for most "regular" investors to spot the sub rosa glee that the mutual funds have for the derailing of the radical elements in the House which have egged Obama to the left. In fact, the untold story of this summer may be that Obama recognized that he is president, not Nancy Pelosi.
That's been a lot of what this rally is really about: the reclaiming of the center. That means more multiple expansion for the bulls, particularly in health care, in which the agenda is now seemingly completely dead -- so dead that it is time for Obama to declare victory and move on.
Alas, the bears do have one new weapon, provided by its daily arsenal, The Wall Street Journal. This time it is that the early bulls are turning bearish. I love this one: The central figure is Michael Darda! The writer of the Journal's lead story says that Darda turned bullish at the bottom and is now getting bearish. I had to laugh. Anyone following Darda knows that the whole time the western world was hanging in the balance, he was calling for higher rates! Jeeesh! If I care what he's doing, I might as well just hang 'em up.
Now, if Doug Kass, a contributor at RealMoney.com, were aggressively bearish -- and I do not detect that -- it might be a better story.
When I looked through the charts this weekend, all I saw were breakouts and setups for breakouts. I think the sanguine pattern continues, especially if, in this data-free week, the best the bears can do is put out the mind-changing of Michael Darda. Not a lot there to change the direction.
But I remain open to anything that can stop this most amazing and least-heralded bull run that I have ever seen. Right now, the bulls remain firmly in charge.
Random musings: I expect a plethora of bad back-to-school stories this week, but I have to tell you that from my retail contacts, things remain on plan to above plan. ,,, Citigroup's (NYSE: C) Cramer's take run, and I have been a big believer, needs a pause to recharge. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) Cramer's take, on the other hand, looks like it is ready to run $20.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Bank of America.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-24-2009 @ 10:04AM
ebrandler34 said...
If this were "old school" college basketball, Cramer would get a technical for hanging from the rim after a dunk ... maybe he needs to add a "hood" throat slash for good measure.
Just keep coaxing the "sheeple" into the circus tent. That's your job, isn't it?
8-24-2009 @ 12:24PM
Strong Island said...
I would put Dardas track record against Cramers any day of the week.
A good looking guy with the call of the year and all of his hair must be so irritating to him.
8-24-2009 @ 12:17PM
Beltway Greg said...
What's Lenny "Nails" Dykstra saying these days? He's one of the great ones!