First Niagara's stock has meandered somewhat since the spring call, but the value proposition remains the same: a community bank with few non-performing mortgages. It's residential loan portfolio, all in-house, is performing well.
Hence, look on the recent sideways action for FNFG as an extended Buy opportunity: and given the likely U.S. economic recovery, those choice entry points won't be around forever. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for FNFG are 57 cents to 87 cents.
Stock Analysis: First Niagara is a moderate-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 50% position in FNFG now; then buy another 25% in three months, if U.S. economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 75% of your FNFG position before October 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $6.20.
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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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