What's the outlook for health care costs in the years ahead?


"Capital," Maxwell Emery (Hume Cronyn) said in the finance film Rollover (1981), "has a life of its own."

The market absolutists and conservatives who oppose health care reform are going to find out just how much havoc that capital force can generate in the years ahead, as it relates to health care costs.

Most conservatives oppose health care reform, believing that the health care system is fine, and the market will sort everything out, including lowering health care costs. (And, presumably, magically insuring 47 million people who don't have health insurance now.)

But the reality will be quite different. The U.S. population is aging, and as it ages it will place even more cost pressures on every dimension of the health care system -- from private insurance, to Medicare, to Medicaid, to hospitalization costs. Absent a federal program to contain costs -- and to inject real competition into the private sector via a public insurance option - the market will do what it always does when rising demand meets supply: prices will rise, and at an even higher rate than what the nation is experiencing now. Underscoring, nothing, except the public policy process, will stop health care costs from rising as demand increases.

And if don't believe that, see Maxwell Emery's point above.

--

Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is based in New York.

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