Will housing stocks drop this fall?

Posted Aug 27th 2009 9:00AM by Wade Hansen
Filed under: D.R.Horton (DHI), KB HOME (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL)

If you listen to the majority of economists out there, they will tell you that the collapse of the housing market was one of the major factors that pushed us into the current recession. They will also tell you that a recovery in the housing market will be necessary if we are to ever pull out of this recession.

So it's no surprise that, with all of that in mind, economists and investors have been excited to see improvements in the housing market this summer.

For instance, the New Home Sales number released on Wednesday by the Census Bureau showed that sales rose more than expected in July -- to 433,000.

Stock traders have taken news like this to heart and have pushed the value of home-building stocks like Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE: TOL), KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI) up nearly 100% since the market bottomed out in March.

The question is, will the apparent real estate recovery be able to continue as we head into the fall -- a time when home sales typically drop off from their summer levels?

Plus, September is a notoriously bad month for the stock market. It might be a time to take a look at some covered calls if you want to hold on to some stocks you're worried might fall a bit.

Wade Hansen is an analyst for Learning Markets

Tags: dhi, featured, housing stock, HousingStock, kbh, tol