The United States Postal Service has been heavily promoting it's flat rate deliveries based on the the size of the box instead of the weight in an attempt to retrieve some of the business that it has lost to Federal Express Corp (NYSE: FDX) and United Parcel Service.(NYSE: UPS) over the years.The increasing use of the internet has reduced snail-mail traffic, hurting USPS revenue, while the internet has increased the traffic of package delivery services as sites like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) continue to expand their businesses and new enterprises and existing traditional companies expand their web presence.
At first glance it would seem the Postal Service is on to something here and might have found a path to increasing its market share taking away some business from its highly successful competitors. But the new flat rate box scheme may turn out to be the governments version of 3-card monte or shell game. The deal is not what it seems.
Yes it is true that you can fill-up a shipping box to its maximum weight without increased cost, but what about when you have a little more? Then you must either use another box that is not full and the deal might not work, since you would be paying more than you should. To avoid this you could hold back your shipment until you have more to ship to that same address, but this is not very convenient.
To avoid this scenario you could simply use the flat rate boxes when it is of benefit and the weighted current system that FDX and UPS offer when that makes sense (just like you probably do now). This is likely to happen and I am already planning on it. Therefore the USPS, which has no doubt amortized the cost over millions of packages, may very well find that they have only captured the least profitable segment of the business -- by design -- burdening the postal system further.
If what I predict is true look for the flat rate program to be phased out or prices to rise once the data comes in and the losses are realized.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of UPS and actively trade options.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-31-2009 @ 7:29PM
MyKisa said...
...USPS has an endless supply of money and can operate at a loss..and YOU foot the bill
8-31-2009 @ 7:09PM
JON BERGEY said...
Now you know why usps has lost 3 bil. not on first class mail on package delivery that they cann't handle If they would drop the package del. they would make a bil. or 2 on letters but as long as the tax payers bail them out they don't care.
8-31-2009 @ 7:23PM
Lasagne said...
The Post Office is NOT supported by taxpayer dollars. They are a separate entity unto itself and operates only with funds generated by sales. The Post office operated in the black as recently as 2006, and only is in the financial situation it is in because of the recession (loss of business mailings) and because of the Congress' mandate to prefund 75 years of future retiree's health benefits over a period of 10 years! Also, last year's skyrocketing fuel costs didn't help. When the economy gets better, the mail volume will increase.
8-31-2009 @ 9:05PM
Alvin Pettit said...
How do we foot the bill if the US Postal Service doesn't get federal funding?
The USPS is not like the department of defense or Home Land Security. It operates on revenues based on it's services.
Now the US Government contracts out things to the postal service. That's different.
8-31-2009 @ 10:02PM
pink said...
The USPS should stop contracting with FDX and UPS and use ABX Air instead. They would get much better rates.
8-31-2009 @ 10:07PM
ebizguruz said...
Lasagne said...
"The Post Office is NOT supported by taxpayer dollars. They are a separate entity unto itself and operates only with funds generated by sales."
Now we all know that is certainly true ... because if they WERE a subsidized government agency they woud just raise rates every time their market share declined to support their bloated bureaucracy ... wait a minnit, they do that!
"When the economy gets better, the mail volume will increase".
And if a bear had not stopped to defecate in the woods it would CERTAINLY catch a rabbit every time.
I think you inhaled ...
8-31-2009 @ 11:12PM
mentallyretired said...
For the confused folks who think the USPS receives subsidies from the taxpayer/federal government, the USPS has been self supporting since 1982. When they lose money they issue debt (sell bonds).
http://www.usps.com/cpim/ftp/pubs/pub100/pub100_037.htm
"The act established an independent Postal Rate Commission of five members...It authorized the Postal Service to borrow money from the general public and phased out the general public service subsidy, which the Postal Service ended earlier than required, last accepting an operational subsidy in 1982."
9-01-2009 @ 2:06AM
dan said...
the post office is not self supporting. when it is the red it just borrows more money from your grandchildren by issuing more national debt. Their own website says that....well roughly
http://www.usps.com/cpim/ftp/pubs/pub100/pub100_037.htm
9-01-2009 @ 5:25AM
al coholic said...
It's hard to argue with people who cannot even comprehend the facts. No shortfall by the USPS is subsidized by the government. If they need money they go out into the marketplace just like any other company and sell bonds.
With the huge infrastructure they have to carry to service all of America and abroad it's a miracle they ever made a nickel of profit, especially now that snail mail is slowly going away for many people. The Internet is proving to be the replacement for the printing press as many magazine and newspaper companies have discovered.
9-01-2009 @ 9:13AM
Brad said...
The headline states FedEx & UPS challenged by USPS flat rates. Then the whole article makes it sound like this very consumer friendly and convenient service is bound to fail. The writer discloses at the end of the article he owns UPS stock. Take a look at UPS stock over the last three years. Sounds this article is wishful thinking on Sheldons part. Doesn't look like UPS can stand any more competition.
9-01-2009 @ 10:48AM
robert said...
sounds like sheldon is pumping up UPS shares.. blantantly!
9-01-2009 @ 12:30PM
SAMUEL MONTANO said...
AS A POSTAL WORKER, I HAVE TO TELL YOU THAT IF WE ARE INDEED TALKING ABOUT THE TRUST TO THE CUSTOMER AS FAR AS VALUE. THAN LET ME TELL YOU WHAT HAPPENS ALL ACROSS THE UNITED STATES EVERYDAY.
WHEN YOU TRUST UPS/FEDEX TO GET A PACKAGE TO ITS DESTINATION AND THEY CHARGE THE PREMIUM PRICE, THAT IS PUTTING TRUST IN THEM THAT THEY ARE GIVING YOU THE SERVICE FOR THE BEST VALUE. I WITNESS EVERY DAY THE UPS STORE EMPLOYEES COMING INTO MY STATION TO MAIL PRODUCTS FOR LESS, THAN THEY JUST CHARGED THIER PATRONS. FOR AN EXAMPLE A CUSTOMER CAME TO ME AND COMPLAINED ABOUT THE COST OF A PRIORITY PIECE, AND SAID SHE WOULD TAKE IT ACROSS THE STREET TO THE UPS STORE , AND I TOLD HER WHY GO ALL THAT WAY, THE UPS GUY IS IN LINE BEHIND YOU. NEEDLESS TO SAY SHE WAS SHOCKED TO SEE HIM THERE MAILING PARCELS THRU US THAT HE HAD CHARGED HIS PATRONS MORE FOR AND WHTA HAPPENS TO THE DIFFERENCE? WELL I CAN ONLY ASSUME IT GOES INTO THE PROFIT COLUMN. I DO NOT OWN STOCK IN THE UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE, BUT IF WE ARE GOING TO TALK THE TRUTH, LETS TALK THE TRUTH. DONT LET YOUR STOCK HOLDINGS DICTATE THE WAY YOU TRY TO CONVEY THE TRUTH. FLAT RATE BOXES ARE THE BEST VALUE, I AGREE THAT IF YOU HAVE MORE YOUMUST USE A NEW BOX, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL FLAT RATES BOXES NOT JUST ONE. AND ON TOP OF THAT YOU DO NOT HAVE TO SEND IT FLAT RATE, YOU CAN GO BY WEIGHT WHICH SOMETIMES TURNS OUT TO BE THE BEST VALUE. ALSO FLAT RATE IS FOR PRIORITY WE OFFER SOM MANY MORE OPTIONS FOR DELIVERY SUCH AS FIRST CLASS, PARCEL POST, BOOK(OR MEDIA MAIL) RATE, TO SAY WE ARE RUNNING A SHELL AGAME IS LUDICROUS. I THINK PEOPLE NEED TOBE WELLINFORMED BEFORE THAY START LISTENING TO IDIOTS LIKE MR. SHELDON.
9-01-2009 @ 12:53PM
Sheldon L said...
Sam M.
Thank you for your considered comments.
1. Any UPS employee taking their customers packages to the Post Office is committing a crime and scamming both their employer and their customer. How they can cover this up when either seeks to track the package is obviously a mystery.
2. Most business people use a combination of delivery services and that will continue as best value is sought at all levels.
3. I will agree that the term 'shell game' may be too harsh, but the flat rate box offer is not the value it is portrayed to be just like the shell game where the 'mark' or customer is likewise not going to receive the anticiated value. It is more of a marketing ploy.
4. The understated mention of UPS herein hardly would be considered much promotion by any unbiased reader, or one of my regular readers that is well aware of the lengths that I go to disclose -- including, when I have to admit to my investment mistakes...et. al.
9-01-2009 @ 3:12PM
Lasagne said...
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I took it as the UPS guy was mailing his OWN parcels, not those of his customers...
9-01-2009 @ 3:38PM
mark g said...
1. Any UPS employee taking their customers packages to the Post Office is committing a crime and scamming both their employer and their customer.
What crime would that be exactly? Fedex, UPS and DHL all ship not only packages but letter mail also both standard and expedited. Check your packages and letters where postage is usually applied (upper right corner) and you may see things such as smartpost, smartmail, UPS mail innovations, etc. These are all accepted and shipped by private carriers to the local post office for delivery.
How they can cover this up when either seeks to track the package is obviously a mystery.
Many of these same packages have multiple barcodes. SOme of them have dual barcodes. I've seen packages with both UPS (1z) tracking numbers and USPS delivery confirmation numbers. I would guess UPS scans them along the way to delivering them to the local post office that in turn delivers and scans them delivered which UPS in turn uploads that info and marks them delivered with the time.
2. Most business people use a combination of delivery services and that will continue as best value is sought at all levels.
Unfortunately for the USPS most people business or otherwise don't bother to seek out the truth especially when it comes to the postal service (as witnessed by your ignorant comments as well as many of the postings here.) If they did then they would quickly find out that the postal service is kicks the competition to the curb not only in price but alot of times in delivery speed. But just don't take my opinion check out what consumer reports said http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/money/shopping/shopping-tips/fedex-vs-ups-vs-the-postal-service/overview/package-delivery-services-ov.htm?Extkey=SY95PI0&CMP=KNC-CROVMYSSP&HBX_OU=51&PK=yssp
An excerpt: "We also checked prices to send a 5-pound package from New York to California regular next-day, two-day, and slower ground. The Postal Service won again in the first two categories and more or less tied in the third"
Which brings us to
3. I will agree that the term 'shell game' may be too harsh, but the flat rate box offer is not the value it is portrayed to be just like the shell game where the 'mark' or customer is likewise not going to receive the anticiated value. It is more of a marketing ploy.
Notice that was a 5 pound package (much less than the up to 70 pounds that you can send in a flat rate box.) Well guess what happens when the weight goes up? The USPS flat rate (about $11-$15) stays the same the others skyrocket. Don't take my word for it compare prices online at USPS.com UPS.com and Fedex.com before you ship. 99% of the time USPS is cheaper and alot of those times MUCH cheaper. For those that will say you can't track or your package will get lost or damaged you can add insurance for a MINIMAL amount of actual value which when added to the shipping price is still much lower.
4. The understated mention of UPS herein hardly would be considered much promotion by any unbiased reader, or one of my regular readers that is well aware of the lengths that I go to disclose -- including, when I have to admit to my investment mistakes...et. al.
While just mentioning an entity doesn't necessarily suggest promotion, offering opinions based on personal feelings and very little fact to bash the competition of an entity in which you have a vested interest in should be seen as biased.
9-01-2009 @ 4:28PM
Sheldon L said...
Mark G,
Thank you for your comments, but alas, only half truths.
1. The crime is misrepresenting how the package would be delivered. UPS has something called "Basic Service Level II" that sends a package to a post office and USPS takes it 'the last mile'. This is done on a contract basis for commercial customers. They are charged less and the delivery is slower. If UPS or an employee were to represent and charge for one service and provide another that is fraud.
2. If you would have checked with UPS and USPS, as I did, you would find packages cannot be tracked past the delivery to the post office.
3. I never said the consumer would not benefit from using the flat rate deal when it serves them to do so. What I said was using it exclusively would not be the best deal.
4. This is an opinion piece, use the word feelings if you like; the facts are something you may want to study further because mine are solid. You, and others have let your feelings affect the substance and tone of your comments.
Nevertheless I encourage you to continue to share your views.
9-01-2009 @ 8:28PM
old clerk said...
ups and fedex aside, the usps deal on flat rate is simple and any good window clerk worth their wt in salt would explain to the customer as i do that the deal basically works this way....the further away you send it and the more you put in it the more you save.... many times i tell customers to use priority mail but use a regular box not a flat rate... we still offer a nice service and the customers appreciate your honesty... personally, i dont think the large flat rate box is that much bigger than the medium... but it overall it can be a good deal.. some supv want us to treat the customers as "let the buyer beware".. and not tell them the ins and outs of the flat rate... sorry..old school.. most cust are repeat customers and i WILL help them.
9-04-2009 @ 4:05PM
dukemeiser said...
I believe the idea behind flat rate boxes is to simplify shipping. Just because you're not filling it up to the weight limit every time doesn't mean you aren't getting your value. With a flat rate, it's the same price, every package. Possibly worth the trade off in weighing every package every time. Time=Money. The USPS also provides customers with FREE boxes. I've used them personally for an occasional eBay sale to save time and money. It often doesn't take much weight to make the flat rates a better value.
Also, they are meant to be a "gateway" product to the USPS. Switch to USPS for the flat rate boxes and keeps us for your custom weight packages too.
9-20-2009 @ 6:46PM
sgentilejr said...
This entire argument is totally ridiculous. All of the companies mentioned all serve their customers very well. The US Postal Service has some major cost advantages. The US Postal Service can abuse their employees more and pay them less without any fear of their workers striking. The USPS is exempt from all taxes. Taxes all the private delivery firms have to pay. The USPS for instance does not pay federal or state tax on the gasoline or diesel fuel they use, which lowers their per gallon cost by 50 cents per gallon or more in every state. They do not pay real estate taxes on the buildings they own and they do not pay state sales taxes on anything the buy. They do not pay for building permits or need any local approvals to build whatever they want to build, anywhere they want to build it. They are also exempt from paying into state disability and unemployment insurance funds. The post office is exempt from filing and paying state and federal income taxes even when they are profitable. Whereas, Federal Express and United Parcel must hire numerous accountants and file tax returns in every state they operate in.
Yes the US Postal Service prices are considerable lower and their Priority Mail Service is terrific, but they also have many unfair competitive advantage due to all of the taxes they are exempt from paying. They can also park their vehicles ANYWHERE without fear of parking fines or being towed away. If Federal Express or United Parcel Service operated the way the US Postal Service does they would be in court every day facing law suits and facing huge Occupational Safety fines. Most floor tiles on postal workrooms nationwide are made from Asbestos based floor tiles that were installed back in the early 1960's. No private firm would get away with that and instead would be fined by the Federal and State governments, sued by their workers and have to pay to replace the floors as one example.
One point of interest: The US Constitution mentions “establishing a Post Office”. That is the one and only agency the US Constitution mentions establishing. I guess our forefathers realized how important it is, even if people today do not.
9-22-2009 @ 3:05PM
RW said...
USPS has a great idea for shippers in this economy who are changing their methods to frugality. Many people are sacrificing transit times (3-l0 days) as opposed to getting their product to their prospects next day to save money. This new attack by the USPS will effect Fed Ex and Ups for that exact reason. We need to remember that using the post office also lacks in many other customer service areas from tracking your package to reattempts on a package to getting a hold of an actual person when a issue occurs etc. I personally feel that regional carriers offer custom rates and exceptional service...
Has anyone here tried regional companies such as:
OnTrac.com (WA, OR, CA, AZ, UT, NV)
Spee-Dee Delivery (IA, IL, MN, NB, ND, WI),
Lone Star Overnight (TX and OK), and
Eastern Connection (from ME to VA) .