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EU investigating Oracle's bid to buy Sun

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On Thursday morning, European Union regulators announced the launch of an antitrust probe into U.S. software maker Oracle's (NASDAQ: ORCL) takeover of Sun Microsystems. The regulatory group believes that the deal could lead to higher prices and limited choice for database software. Approval from this group is considered the main stumbling block for the deal, which has cleared the Department of Justice in the United States.

The final decision has a deadline of 90 days, or January 19, 2009. By this date, the European Commission can decide to clear or to block the deal. More often than not, the Commission will force companies to make changes that would eliminate any concerns over antitrust regulations.

The regulatory group wants to insure that customers will not have less choice or be forced to pay a higher price thanks to the takeover. The deal is valued at roughly $7.4 billion, which is $5.6 billion net of Sun's cash and debt.

Technically, ORCL is an outstanding performer -- but it is on pace to battle overhead resistance in the $23 region. In March, the stock performed an about-face and started its trek higher along the support of its 10-week moving average. This trendline has acted as support through many tests, and it appears that it will fill this role yet again.

On the rare occasions that the 10-week trendline has failed, the 20-week trendline has stepped in and provided support. I wouldn't expect this announcement to have much impact on the stock, we could see a shake up once the European regulatory body issues a decision; but that could be as many as 90 days away.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 12:09 PM

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