The rate at which jobs were cut slowed in August, but the gap to be filled will be with us for a while. With 14.9 million people looking for jobs according to Moody's Economy.com, the unemployment rate won't hit 5% -- considered "normal" -- until 2014. To put this in perspective, we still have one presidential election and two mid-term contests between now and a full employment recovery.
Data published by the Department of Labor Friday puts the unemployment rate at 9.7%. In December 2007, it was only 4.7%. And, as BloggingStocks reported on Friday, it could pass 10% by the end of 2009. For teenagers, the unemployment rate has reached 26%. The number of job-seekers who have given up completely is above 750,000 -- the highest level since the Department of Labor started keeping score in 1994.
The average unemployed worker spends 24.9 weeks without a job -- the highest level since 1948 -- and 4.98 million people have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks, also the peak since the end of World War II. Another 9 million are underemployed -- i.e., taking part-time work despite wanting more hours or otherwise fuller employment. The average workweek has slipped to 33.1 hours, just up from the summer low of 33 hours.
To keep pace with the increase in job hunters from immigration and population growth, 125,000 jobs would need to be created every month. Replacing the lost jobs of the past two years would require an even higher rate of job creation. So, stay focused on the future ... the distant future.
Market Minute: Waiting for Bernanke on Stimulus Wrap-Up
Ex-Workers: BofA Lied, Rewarded Foreclosures with Gift Cards


Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
9-05-2009 @ 6:13PM
John Andersen said...
As James Howard Kunstler puts it, we are in "The Long Emergency."
There will never be a recovery to what we knew during America's Second Gilded Age (1981-2008). Growth economics are over. It turns out that nonrenewable resources actually are what they are called.
Limits do apply, even to ambitious Americans.
Any future is in a steady-state sustainable economy. And I suspect most people won't have jobs, but those who survive will have valuable skills producing necessary goods and services; skills they trade for other necessities.
9-05-2009 @ 6:43PM
Jo Abel said...
You have got to be kidding. 2014 today is 2009 how are people supposed to feed their families for all this time without hope of jobs? This sort of ineffective action is a night mare for people living in this country.
Jobs so slow to return, if ever, this isn't going to help the country to revive. And O gives the government workers 2% raise.....now how is he going to pay for this raise when non government workers are unemployed?
Out rageous!
9-06-2009 @ 5:51PM
mycodename said...
The carrying capacity for the United States is 100,000,000 people, more or less. The current population is over 300,000,000. It seems someone in government might of said something about this by now. We need to rework our system, it doesn't work, at all.
One thing I'm going to do to help is stop eating at McDonald's. Seems like every time I go there they've hired another non-English speaking individual. I know it's racist, prejudice, and all the other bad stuff but I still can't help but think that if they don't speak English, then they might be illegal.
I'm going to put a U.S. Citizen teenager back to work by boycotting McDonald's. I don'[t like there food much anyway.
9-05-2009 @ 8:12PM
mark said...
you said bushes unemployment rate was alot lower then obamas.. the rate we have now is sponsured by the bush regime. obama inherited this economic envirement. your oppinion in this article is highschool . i still dont think any republicans have figured out how much the majority of america hates and blames them for everything that is happening right now. at this point right now i like bin loddin more then the republican party. if jobs dont come back for 5 years there will be a revalution. im buying a gun..
9-05-2009 @ 7:29PM
jill allison said...
National public radio talks of some economic recovery but not in the job market. To me, this means that the richest people are still getting richer and the poorer people getting poorer with no relief in sight. How long will most of us have to continue paying for the rich?
There is NO economic recovery without jobs! We need to take back the bonus money from bail outs and create green government jobs. Time to stop letting the richest folks keep stealing from the rest of us!
9-05-2009 @ 7:59PM
LAObserver said...
John Andersen said...
As James Howard Kunstler puts it, we are in "The Long Emergency."
Exactly. And thank you for pointing that out Our Post WWII model for taking cheap oil and powering a "car in every garage" is over. It ended with peak oil a few years ago.
When gas hit $5/gallon, and OPEC couldn't increase production....it became known as the Plateau Oil by the NYTimes. But we both know it is really peak oil.
I can only think of one politician seriously looking at the energy situation in a realistic fashion. And that is Palin. I sure hope she gets farther. We need to change the way we power cars really friggen soon if this is to recover even by 2014.
Our Politicians are too engrossed with the taxation at the fuel pump. And the only thing you can put throught the fuel pump is liquid at low pressure.....and that is why they play the ethanol card...simply because it is a liquid that will help keep the existing transportation taxes in place.
The current demise of this nation is about the transportation law which makes it illegal for you and me to use non-transportation taxed fuels. In other words, you can't refuel your car at home with existing energy sources...because there is no transportation tax and therefore illegal. You can get a serious fine if the Highway Patrol catches you at it.
So here we are. Ending with a wimper the greatest economic expansion in the history of the US.
Consider this. The auto sales in this country account for about 50% of the economic activity in this country when you consider all the jobs that are created to manufacture, sell, insure, register, police, and maintain....etc. If GM is off of sales by about 50%...then that would translate into about an unemployment rate of 25%.....
I think we are header there sooner than later.
Thank you John Anderson for pointing out the resources problem.
http://trafficbulldog.org
9-05-2009 @ 8:04PM
LAObserver said...
Oh yeah.
And all this hope for "undefined" change.
Well that is really scaring off investors isn't it.
It would really help to say, hey businesses...we know that health care costs are killing you, we are trying to figure out how to remove it from your overhead....
but no, we hear "hey businesses, we are going to force the cost of national health care on you"
now, why would you want to invest in a company that is likely to have its business model blown apart before they get going.
oh, and the bonus and salary caps for the free marxist system they want to put in place. Well that is just scaring the people that will help fund the expansion of small business.
9-05-2009 @ 8:09PM
LAObserver said...
jill allison said...
"Time to stop letting the richest folks keep stealing from the rest of us!"
---------------------
Jill that is just so 1917 Russia. You should study a little more history.
Keep hoping for change to a Free Marxist system Jill. Good luck with that. Maybe you could go bite the finger off of a "rich folk" and you might feel better.
TimeforMoveOnToMoveOn.org
9-05-2009 @ 8:26PM
Ayaz Ullah said...
2014... Damn, that's still quite a long time away ;/.
9-05-2009 @ 9:27PM
Michael R. said...
OK.......then write your congressmen that we MUST have a transportation revolution soon. That could EASILY be accomplished by retrofitting our gas stations to accomodate compressed natural gas cars/trucks via government subsidies. Our fuel money will begin to stay in this country and ALSO create a VAST amount of jobs very quickly. Will we do it? Only if big oil can be dismantled from direct influences to our legislature. We will still be using oil for planes, trains and of course some
percentage of automobiles, but electric vehicles require platinum for the lithium batteries and hybrids also use elements even more scarce than oil. America needs to grow up and use our own resources such as natural gas instead of funding middle eastern skyscrapers.....btw: electricity will never be able to fuel big rigs for hauling, it just won't work and just how many people have garages or enclosures to charge electric cars?????? especially in big cities such as New York. I'm not charging anything electrical in wet/moist weather.
9-05-2009 @ 9:36PM
Clifford Wirth said...
Such drivel: http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/2009/06/net-hubbert-curve-what-does-it-mean-by.html
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
9-05-2009 @ 11:20PM
ij70 said...
2014 sounds about right.
Those who do not know what to do or how to survive, immigrate or start a revolution.
9-05-2009 @ 11:27PM
purple said...
you said bushes unemployment rate was alot lower then obamas.. the rate we have now is sponsured by the bush regime. obama inherited this economic envirement. your oppinion in this article is highschool . i still dont think any republicans have figured out how much the majority of america hates and blames them for everything that is happening right now. at this point right now i like bin loddin more then the republican party. if jobs dont come back for 5 years there will be a revalution. im buying a gun..
and already nobama's making things a whole lot worse, we need a third party, because sarah palin has sold out to the big business elites.
9-06-2009 @ 12:08AM
mike said...
2014 huh? That is the year I planned on retiring , Gee and I was worried , go figure.
9-06-2009 @ 5:24AM
Richard said...
Well have you are reading correctly...2014. Again, this is not a Democratic or republican issue it is an ideological issue. Both parties have played a role, however that being said with all that has happened in these short months wake people up which is happening now...Is this really the Change you expected?..Government in and of itself is not your answer..It is the problem as said by Ronald Reagan...If you continue to think that this President and Democratic Congress is correct in doing all it has and the direction it is taking, than it is your right/duty and vote for that ideology. In my opinion it is a wrong direction.....We Are Broke...We want our freedoms back...
9-06-2009 @ 6:49AM
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9-06-2009 @ 6:52AM
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9-06-2009 @ 6:58PM
Joe said...
There are plenty of jobs on Capitol Hill, why do we not start there with layoffs and downsizing. This would not happen in other Countries as they would riot the place where the laws are made that are causing all of the problems.
This did not happen overnight but current Government Policies and the ones who are making them are not helping them.
I have worked in the Food Industry from the age of 1966 to 1977, Financial Industry from 1977 to 1979, Healthcare 1979 to 2000, and Real Estate 2000 to 2002, back to Healthcare 2002 to present. Each Industry has had its automation and changes for better or worse. We are responsible for the mess we are in as we are very complacent and allow the Government to do whatever it wishes, while we hole our heads in the sand. Please America take a stand and let’s fix this mess by getting the non working officials out of our Government, they are working (if you can call it that) and getting big paychecks and bribes from the financial industry, healthcare industry etc.
9-06-2009 @ 10:14PM
mark said...
now that the repukes are out things will get better. bush and chenney looted the treasury so bad that they said screw little 5 year old johnny and him eating 3 meals a day. when the repukes tried to bring in someone more dumb then bush, you know that nasty looking fat chick sarra palen. they thought they could fool the american peaple a 3rd time. and they said no exstentions on unemployment. screw the little guy. palen makes me want to vomit shes so nasty looking. the repukelican party is dead forever. now they will have all kinds of time to have sex with other men in airport bathrooms.
9-07-2009 @ 7:26AM
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