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Time Warner and Death rule box office again

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Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) was tops at the multiplex yet again with a scary horror franchise that the teens seem to be enjoying. The Final Destination, according to Boxofficemojo, grossed $12 million at domestic theaters over the three-day weekend, as of early estimates available at the time of this writing. I'm sure Destination will retain its number-one status once Labor Day is figured into the equation.

All About Steve, from News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS), was the second-place film. It actually came close to Destination's take, bringing in about $11 million. Inglourious Basterds, distributed by The Weinstein Company, was third, and Gamer, an interesting sci-fi flick courtesy of Lionsgate (NYSE: LGF), was fourth. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) District 9, which came in fifth, has now gone beyond $100 million in total take.

Unfortunately, the casualty this week, The Weinstein Company's Halloween 2, dropped a few spots to number six. The market has spoken: those who want to see blood and gore are choosing Time Warner's slick Destination product over the more cerebral, character-driven plot of the remake of one of the most famous sequels in genre history. I assume from this point on that the movie will begin to fade from view. Still, Halloween 2 has a chance of producing a decent return once you factor in all the ancillary distribution channels, I suppose, because of its relatively inexpensive budget of $15 million.

When I look at the charts of all the stocks mentioned in this piece, I find myself drawn mostly to the price action of Lionsgate. This stock, unfortunately, is an extremely speculative entity that can exhibit volatility whenever it feels like doing so. Shares closed at $5.79 on August 19. Last Friday, Lionsgate was priced at $6.44 -- a huge move for a low-priced equity.

I keep saying I want to initiate a Lionsgate position on the next pullback, but I've been coming down on the side of caution in terms of trading. With the recent buyout of Marvel (NYSE: MVL) by Disney (NYSE: DIS), one might expect further upside potential to Lionsgate because additional consolidation in the media space might take place (I certainly wouldn't buy Lionsgate on the performance of Gamer). It's a possibility to muse over at the very least.

Well, we've now come to the end of the summer celluloid season. The industry is looking forward to the fall, and hoping for as many hits as possible. With home video in decline, and with the DVD format experiencing potential price deflation, studios will be counting on theaters to maximize the box-office bucks they bring in.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 12:26 PM

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