Unemployment numbers signal need for new growth sectors


The dominant theme in August's job report from the U.S. Department of Labor? August was another month of broad-based job losses, but the pace of job cutbacks is lessening.

As has been the case since the recession started in December 2007, construction (65,000 job cuts), manufacturing (63,000), financial services (28,000), and wholesale trade (17,000), again registered large job losses, while health care was one of few gainers, adding 28,000 jobs.

In total, August saw the U.S. economy shed another 213,000 jobs -- a stat slightly above the 200,000 Bloomberg News estimate. Further, although July's job loss total was revised upward by 31,000 to 276,000, the consensus among economists and analysts is that job losses have bottomed.

That said, 200,000 jobs lost in a month still represents a large loss in GDP output and purchasing power -- and the current, 3-month loss rate is as bad as any period during the 1980 and 1982 recessions. Also, 7.4 million jobs have been lost during this recession, and when that stat is added to those who were without work before the recession, it means 14.9 million work-eligible Americans are unemployed -- a gargantuan total in any review period.

In addition, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.7% in August from 9.4% in July: many economists expect the U.S. unemployment to top 10% in Q3/Q4 or early next year. Even worse, an alternate measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time because they can't find full-time work, rose to 16.8% in August from 16.3% in July.

Economic Analysis: The bottom line on the August jobs report: the report shows a U.S. job market suffering from both a cyclical downturn and structural changes -- resulting in near double-digit unemployment. Globalization, basically the transfer of U.S. jobs to lower-cost production regions outside the U.S., means that a substantial portion of the jobs lost will not reappear -- which underscores the need for the U.S. to identify and create new sectors of growth in health care services, information technology, infrastructure, education, renewable energy, biotechnology, and high-end/technology-intensive manufacturing, among others, to make up for the industrial output and jobs lost overseas markets. Those new sectors must appear for the United States to remain a strong, versatile, and prosperous nation with ample economic opportunities, and sustainable GDP growth.

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