Maybe one day we can escape the commodity linkage and begin to trade on the fundamentals again, something that seems more distant now than any time I can recall. We are totally marching to gold, to oil, to copper, and not the fundamentals.
Throughout the era in which China has become a superpower and hedge funds have become the super arbiters or what goes up or down, we have been stuck with this fairly bogus linkage that corrupts trading and makes a mockery out of some of the most important financial analysis out there, the actual attempts to discover what's really happening at companies.
You see when we get the kind of action that is endlessly linked to the oil futures or the copper futures or the price of natural gas we get a level of distortion that precludes rational analysis. So we sell Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) when oil's down because that means China's not buying and therefore the world is slowing so personal computer sales will come down. We short Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) when copper's in full supply because that means houses aren't being built and CAT can't make its numbers with a 400,000-a-year home build number.
Baltic Freight Index down a couple of days? Why not blow out of General Electric (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take), FedEx (NYSE: FDX) (Cramer's Take) and Con-way (NYSE: CNW) (Cramer's Take)?
We buy Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take) when the oil futures trade down because that means we are about to have a nasty recession, even when oil trades down a dollar! We freak out and sell retail when oil goes above $72 because gasoline will then start its inexorable drive to $4 which ends the comeback at Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take), although boosts the fortunes of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take).
Or how about when China rallies overnight? Better go take some United Technologies (UTX) (Cramer's Take) and 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) as they have some real leverage to China, as does PPG (PPG) (Cramer's Take). But China down? Sell everything, just everything, even if Europe is rallying because no business is done anywhere but China.
This kind of nonsense has gone on so long, made even more sector-specific and less stock-specific by the plethora of exchange-traded funds that cause the good and the bad retailers or oil drillers or nat gas companies or semiconductor companies to trade in tandem. So when China's up, Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) (Cramer's Take) moves.
We get the same ridiculous behavior with every Treasury auction, none of which has been even remotely impactful to earnings so far. We had a couple of huge bank selloffs when the 10-year went to 4% and change because then the mortgage rates went to 5% and change which then caused Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) to plummet, aided by aggressive short-selling that can't be braked by any of the old- fashioned circuit breakers, like the quaint uptick rule which is rendered even quainter by dark pools and thermonuclear flash trading. Though in the obviously nefarious but still legal triple ETFs used against the financials and a tick on the 10-year causes a 10% decline in Wells Fargo which then causes everyone to figure that, at long last the secondary is here which causes John Stumpf, the tireless chief financial officer, to call CNBC and deny everything.
That this whole linkage process exists --- and I am not even talking about the S&P 500-style trading that has existed since 1984 -- makes for a level of confusion that makes the whole enterprise totally unfathomable to all but those masters who are actually manipulating the oil futures -- oh, and give me a break, judging by the lack of oil tanker activity right now, the world is stacked with the stuff -- or are taking off or keeping copper in the market.
So, what do you do? I think that we all have to take a deep breath and recognize that the commoditization of stocks will end when companies become, again, worth something to other companies, and I am not considering the reckless private-equity firms that are still considered to have gotten through this period with flying colors, like anyone in the media would say differently or risk losing the source grease.
Which is why Cadbury (NYSE: CBY) (Cramer's Take) and BJ Services (NYSE: BJS) (Cramer's Take) and Sepracor (NASDAQ: SEPR) (Cramer's Take) and Marvel (NYSE: MVL) (Cramer's Take) are so important. They have nothing to do with the Baltic Freight Index or copper or lumber or oil or gas or gasoline or Shanghai. They have to do with companies that make money that can make even more money for other companies.
I'm not saying that we should only look for these. I like secular growth stories much better like the mobile Internet with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take) and Skyworks (NASDAQ: SWKS) (Cramer's Take) or Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) (Cramer's Take) and Cypress Semi (NYSE: CY) (Cramer's Take) and Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) (Cramer's Take) and Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) (Cramer's Take). The better-than-expected quarter from secular grower Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) (Cramer's Take) or the return of growth to Costco (NASDAQ: COST) (Cramer's Take) is much more exciting to me.
I just am glad to see that we don't endlessly have to play the associational/etf game with the vast majority of stocks. And maybe, one day, we will be back to pulling the file, figuring out what an individual company is worth and what someone will ultimately pay for a stock, and make some money.
It's called normalcy. I miss it.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Bank of America, Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, Wells Fargo, PPG and Qualcomm.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-09-2009 @ 12:02PM
ebrandler34 said...
The "Cliff's Notes" version of this post should read ..."HOW THE STOCK MARKET TURNED INTO A CASINO".
Unfortunately, there are too many shills out there who continue to pretend that there are mathematical and logical reasons for the daily, weekly and monthly gyrations. They talk about it as "investment" when it has now become straight three-card-monte.
9-09-2009 @ 12:38PM
rv said...
Here is where Benjamin Grahams original theory would be applied best. Pick up the stocks that are distorted lower than they really are and long them. If Mr. Market is acting irrationally, try to make a profit off of it.
9-09-2009 @ 3:23PM
Iridium said...
Wow Cramer, maybe you have finally lost it or actually found it.
THE STOCK MARKET IS COMPLETE BS ENGINEERED BY BIG TICKET FIRMS TO GENERATE REVENUE OUT OF THIN AIR!!!!!!!!
It doesn't trade on what a company is worth or what a company produces. DO YOU THINK A RATIONAL PERSON WOULD CALL A COMPANY TRADING AT 40 TIMES EARNINGS A BUY!!!!!
That is because rational people, in fact people, have lost complete control over the market. The market is controlled by a vast array of supercomputers making millions of traded every second. You ask why Caterpillar goes down when copper goes down?
Because a computer has been programmed with trading algorithms that automatically link market movements with other sectors in order to maximize the profit of a trade. The computer program doesn't care about what a company produces or what it is worth. The computer program only cares about the share price a microsecond ago.
As we add more supercomputers they feed off one another and create the situations you describe. Seemingly off the wall correlations between companies in different sectors. Every once an a while you get a real person that tries to correct the market and upsets what the computer program is trying to do. Then all hell breaks loose and you get the insane days of the market trading in a 700 point intraday range.
Commodity traders programmed the computers to maximize the profit on the contracts they buy. What do you think would happen if you do that and remove all human intervention. The computers will keep increasing the price until someone tells it to stop. The greedy owners of the system keep pushing the stop higher because they see no reason to turn down profit.
We ended up with expensive oil with full tankers sitting idle in the sea. A total oversupply and decreased demand due to the price. In normal economics this would cause a price collapse. Instead the price goes higher because the computer doesn't see an oversupply, it only sees what it is programmed to see. INCREASE THE BASE LEVEL PROFIT OF THE CONTRACT.
WE CREATED THE W.H.O.P.P.E.R FROM WAR GAMES AND TURNED IT INTO A STOCK TRADING MACHINE.
WE ARE PLAYING GLOBAL THERMONUCLEAR WAR THROUGH THE STOCK MARKET!!!!!!!
Just as it could not find a way to win the game this too will end with the same conclusion, THE DESTRUCTION OF ALL MANKIND.