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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Fundamental distortion

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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the action that is linked to the futures markets, such as oil, is distorting rational analysis.

Maybe one day we can escape the commodity linkage and begin to trade on the fundamentals again, something that seems more distant now than any time I can recall. We are totally marching to gold, to oil, to copper, and not the fundamentals.

Throughout the era in which China has become a superpower and hedge funds have become the super arbiters or what goes up or down, we have been stuck with this fairly bogus linkage that corrupts trading and makes a mockery out of some of the most important financial analysis out there, the actual attempts to discover what's really happening at companies.

You see when we get the kind of action that is endlessly linked to the oil futures or the copper futures or the price of natural gas we get a level of distortion that precludes rational analysis. So we sell Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) when oil's down because that means China's not buying and therefore the world is slowing so personal computer sales will come down. We short Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) when copper's in full supply because that means houses aren't being built and CAT can't make its numbers with a 400,000-a-year home build number.

Baltic Freight Index down a couple of days? Why not blow out of General Electric (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take), FedEx (NYSE: FDX) (Cramer's Take) and Con-way (NYSE: CNW) (Cramer's Take)?

We buy Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take) when the oil futures trade down because that means we are about to have a nasty recession, even when oil trades down a dollar! We freak out and sell retail when oil goes above $72 because gasoline will then start its inexorable drive to $4 which ends the comeback at Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take), although boosts the fortunes of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take).

Or how about when China rallies overnight? Better go take some United Technologies (UTX) (Cramer's Take) and 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) as they have some real leverage to China, as does PPG (PPG) (Cramer's Take). But China down? Sell everything, just everything, even if Europe is rallying because no business is done anywhere but China.

This kind of nonsense has gone on so long, made even more sector-specific and less stock-specific by the plethora of exchange-traded funds that cause the good and the bad retailers or oil drillers or nat gas companies or semiconductor companies to trade in tandem. So when China's up, Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) (Cramer's Take) moves.

We get the same ridiculous behavior with every Treasury auction, none of which has been even remotely impactful to earnings so far. We had a couple of huge bank selloffs when the 10-year went to 4% and change because then the mortgage rates went to 5% and change which then caused Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) to plummet, aided by aggressive short-selling that can't be braked by any of the old- fashioned circuit breakers, like the quaint uptick rule which is rendered even quainter by dark pools and thermonuclear flash trading. Though in the obviously nefarious but still legal triple ETFs used against the financials and a tick on the 10-year causes a 10% decline in Wells Fargo which then causes everyone to figure that, at long last the secondary is here which causes John Stumpf, the tireless chief financial officer, to call CNBC and deny everything.

That this whole linkage process exists --- and I am not even talking about the S&P 500-style trading that has existed since 1984 -- makes for a level of confusion that makes the whole enterprise totally unfathomable to all but those masters who are actually manipulating the oil futures -- oh, and give me a break, judging by the lack of oil tanker activity right now, the world is stacked with the stuff -- or are taking off or keeping copper in the market.

So, what do you do? I think that we all have to take a deep breath and recognize that the commoditization of stocks will end when companies become, again, worth something to other companies, and I am not considering the reckless private-equity firms that are still considered to have gotten through this period with flying colors, like anyone in the media would say differently or risk losing the source grease.

Which is why Cadbury (NYSE: CBY) (Cramer's Take) and BJ Services (NYSE: BJS) (Cramer's Take) and Sepracor (NASDAQ: SEPR) (Cramer's Take) and Marvel (NYSE: MVL) (Cramer's Take) are so important. They have nothing to do with the Baltic Freight Index or copper or lumber or oil or gas or gasoline or Shanghai. They have to do with companies that make money that can make even more money for other companies.

I'm not saying that we should only look for these. I like secular growth stories much better like the mobile Internet with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take) and Skyworks (NASDAQ: SWKS) (Cramer's Take) or Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) (Cramer's Take) and Cypress Semi (NYSE: CY) (Cramer's Take) and Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) (Cramer's Take) and Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) (Cramer's Take). The better-than-expected quarter from secular grower Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) (Cramer's Take) or the return of growth to Costco (NASDAQ: COST) (Cramer's Take) is much more exciting to me.

I just am glad to see that we don't endlessly have to play the associational/etf game with the vast majority of stocks. And maybe, one day, we will be back to pulling the file, figuring out what an individual company is worth and what someone will ultimately pay for a stock, and make some money.

It's called normalcy. I miss it.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Bank of America, Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, Wells Fargo, PPG and Qualcomm.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 22, 2009: 10:44 AM

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