It has been about a year since Lehman Brothers failed and this financial crisis started, and it has hit many of the banks hard including Bank of American (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and America International Group (NYSE: AIG).
There has been one thing that has been bugged me in the coverage of it since then. Frequently, reporters use words like unprecedented or unparalleled to describe it. That is false! Financial crises, panics, crashes, bubbles, and bank failures are really about a dime a dozen.
Allow me to illustrate.
- 2000 Internet bubble
- 1997 Asian financial crisis
- 1987 Stock market crash
- 1985 Savings and loan crisis
- 1929 Stock market crash -- Great Depression
- 1907 Banking panic
- 1890s Depression
- 1837 Banking panic
- 1819 Banking panic
- 1797 Banking crisis
- 1780 Depression
- 1637 Dutch tulip mania
That is a dozen for you, and is by no means a comprehensive list. Each of these depressions have causes and unique stories. Many were caused by bank failures, some by stock speculation, others by real estate and unbridled optimism. Pick one, Google it and read up on it.
If you don't know history, you are bound to repeat it. Many today do seem to still think that this banking crisis is unusual. Borrowing too much money has been a problem since we invented money. Banks have failed as long as mankind has had banks. You should be concerned about central banks, bubbles, the Federal Reserve System, fiat money supply, leverage, loans, inflation, and such.
I would like to go on the record and predict that it will happen again. When? I don't know. But mankind has a history of repeating things. Just like every 20 years or so we seem to go to war, every few years the banks fail or a depression hits. Each time mankind thinks he is smarter now and it won't happen again. And he is proved wrong. Maybe we should study history a little more.
What do you think? Are we smarter this time? Are we going to crash again?
Kevin Kersten is a financial analyst and writer.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-14-2009 @ 6:43PM
sonnype said...
You bet it will happen again.Lax regulations and greed combined will ensure it.After staying in the market through the Savings & Loan crisis of the 1980`s and the accounting scandles of the tech bubble of 2000 and now the bank failures Ive had enough and will no longer enter the market until real reform and strict enforcement of rules are adopted.I would like to see Wall Street traders and Banker included under the RICO Act which would show me that the government is serious about protecting investors against unscrupplous behavior
9-14-2009 @ 4:34PM
ptuccy said...
I am 63 years of age today, still employed fortunately and carefully eyeing my chosen retirement age of 67. I am by no means a financial expert but have become more and more leery of trusting any institution with my money any longer.
I am sure we will tank again, especially with this gang in power, most of whom have never run a business.
My current inclination is to invest in a variable annuity product, with short-term withdrawal options but I don't even trust that the currently strongest of the annuity offerers could withstand a deep and prolonged crash. Met, John Hancock, Pru and other well-knowns are of course current financially strong annuity players but who knows what is under their sheets. Guarantees are in-place, of course but I would think that all bets would be off in a really serious crisis.
I need some comforting thoughts to help me remove some of my cynicism and skepticism. Any thoughts? Thanks, Phlorida Phil
9-14-2009 @ 4:39PM
Professor Daniel-Pierre REMY said...
We are in serious danger of an UNPRECENDENTED economic collapse. History may repeat itself, but the consequences can be greatly magnified each recursion.
Think of WW I, WWII, and the Nuclear Capability to destroy the world that never existed before. QED.
Economically the MAGNITUDE is WORLDWIDE in this case in a Global Economy that is intertwined. 1929 was spread to Europe, but not worldwide. China and Japan were not economically tied to us as now. Singapore and Taiwan were non-entities and South America was another sphere.
The Killing Factors are:
1) There is no Economic Recovery now. The economy is collapsing as I write this. Only the TOP of the financial food chain was saved for the very people who caused it.
Even so, their reprieve is temporary, at best.
2) The Middle Financial Tier of Regional Banks is collapsing at an alllarming rate. Ninety regional banks closed their doors last week alon and the trend is increasing.
3) The largest part of the economic pyramid is the american workforce and employment wages. Even the government admits to a "jobless recovery". That is an
absurdity in terms and reality. People must work, save, and SPEND. Not easy without income.
4) Real Leverage Figures: Even though the Banks admit to a 35:1 Leverage during the peak of the crisis, since a large part of the assets were worthless or lost 35 % of value, the Leverage was about 100:1. 1 cent for every dollar. This dilution is deadly.
5) Resuming Leverage: The financial institutions are already starting to create NEW financial hedging schemes. The latest id bundled insurance policies and other assets of any kind "that still remain". They too will be depleted and the leverage numbers will go back to greater than the 17:1 we still have today.
6) The Gorilla is Still in the Room: The global derivatives float is still about $500 TRILLION dollars. Even if only One Percent are called in "a la AIG", that is still $5 TRILLION!!
Where do we have LIQUID ASSETS to cover this amount. We do not have it worlwide in liqid assets that can be immediatly sold without causing a Worldwide Crash.
Given the major factors above, the question becomes: HOW CAN WE AVOID A WORLDWIDE CRASH WITHIN THE NEXT THREE YEARS??". We cannot.
With Sincere Regrets For Us All Who Were Sold Out to Greed, May God and the Human Bond be with us.
Prof: Daniel P. Remy
Economics and Global Finance
4)
9-14-2009 @ 6:54PM
naruto said...
Of course the recession is not over yet. Only a fool would believe such a thing. The banks may feel smug after all the money shoved at them but just take a look at the "real" economy.
9-14-2009 @ 6:54PM
Harvey Ellis said...
I don't understand half of Harry Dent's charts and projections buit I do understand that he almost always correct but then I miss the time range. I am going with him and putting a lot of cash into secure FDIC instruments. I may miss some upticks but I don't plan on another 30-50% value hit. I am glad we got some recovery time but I am playing it safe for the next several quarters.
9-15-2009 @ 10:40AM
ronsmith355 said...
Hey, Harry Dent is the same guy who wrote a book about 9 years ago predicting a 45,000 Dow.
So which side of his mouth is he talking now?