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Are we going to crash again?

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It has been about a year since Lehman Brothers failed and this financial crisis started, and it has hit many of the banks hard including Bank of American (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and America International Group (NYSE: AIG).

There has been one thing that has been bugged me in the coverage of it since then. Frequently, reporters use words like unprecedented or unparalleled to describe it. That is false! Financial crises, panics, crashes, bubbles, and bank failures are really about a dime a dozen.

Allow me to illustrate.

  • 2000 Internet bubble
  • 1997 Asian financial crisis
  • 1987 Stock market crash
  • 1985 Savings and loan crisis
  • 1929 Stock market crash -- Great Depression
  • 1907 Banking panic
  • 1890s Depression
  • 1837 Banking panic
  • 1819 Banking panic
  • 1797 Banking crisis
  • 1780 Depression
  • 1637 Dutch tulip mania

That is a dozen for you, and is by no means a comprehensive list. Each of these depressions have causes and unique stories. Many were caused by bank failures, some by stock speculation, others by real estate and unbridled optimism. Pick one, Google it and read up on it.

If you don't know history, you are bound to repeat it. Many today do seem to still think that this banking crisis is unusual. Borrowing too much money has been a problem since we invented money. Banks have failed as long as mankind has had banks. You should be concerned about central banks, bubbles, the Federal Reserve System, fiat money supply, leverage, loans, inflation, and such.

I would like to go on the record and predict that it will happen again. When? I don't know. But mankind has a history of repeating things. Just like every 20 years or so we seem to go to war, every few years the banks fail or a depression hits. Each time mankind thinks he is smarter now and it won't happen again. And he is proved wrong. Maybe we should study history a little more.

What do you think? Are we smarter this time? Are we going to crash again?

Kevin Kersten is a financial analyst and writer.

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Last updated: November 22, 2009: 07:01 PM

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