Am I nuts, or am I missing something? One year after the financial system was brought to its knees, we are back in the mid-9000s and we have taken off the table massive bank risk and are well on our way to recovery.
I keep listening to people like Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz say the banking system is worse off now and I say to myself, "That's just stupid and wrong and anti-empirical and actually just silly." Anyone who knows what's really going on has to feel this way. And where was Stiglitz when some of us were running around trying to save things?
I also hear there is less discipline and we are all back to doing all the things we shouldn't be. How can anyone think that? We have no shadow banking system anymore, and we have bankers who fear for their jobs every day if they securitize some sort of junk paper, and we know that bad securitizing and egregious selling to accounts that were unsophisticated -- the big commission, where the big fees were -- is history.
Sure, we saw Corus Bank (NASDAQ: CORS) (Cramer's Take) shut this weekend, but we should have shut that years ago along with some other atrocious banks like Downey and Bank United but FDIC chief Sheila "Sainted" Bair was spending too much time meddling with Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take). (She still is.)
But when people get together on Wall Street, the first thing people talk about is "considering all the trillions lost, we are doing pretty well."
I was writing here endlessly when things were getting worse that we had to fill all the black holes -- Lehman, AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take), Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take), GM, Washington Mutual and Wachovia -- before we could start anew. I was concerned about Citigroup. I thought the government would shutter Huntington (NASDAQ: HBAN) (Cramer's Take) and Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB) (Cramer's Take) and Zions (NASDAQ: ZION) (Cramer's Take) and Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) (Cramer's Take). They seemed like naturals.
What happened? Other than the botched Lehman play, where it was easily possible to save it but they didn't want to because of "moral hazard," all of these have been taken care of, some more expensively than others, but this was not a "Japan" solution for certain.
We hear about commercial real estate that's about to collapse, but it won't if the economy turns around -- and it is -- because the banks will show forbearance.
Housing's moving -- sure, aided by the $8,000 tax credit, and you will have to be in contract in November, but rates and price are more important and they are cheap as can be.
Autos: "Cash for Clunkers" worked. Inventories are lean.
Shippers are optimistic; they are on the front lines.
Tech's made its first serious turn since the beginning of the Net, and it is led by the mobile Internet tsunami .
Retail's very strong, even though, again, I read endlessly that it isn't. Homework matters so much in this business, and I just have to presume that those who write that retail is weak don't realize that the paradigm has shifted and we are now in the mode of profitable sales, not profitless revs driven by same-store sales nonsense.
The commodities markets are healthy. We might be on the cusp of a gigantic new airline cycle.
We even have a chance to build out natural gas as our own fuel, to knock of some of our trade deficit.
The dollar's remarkably strong. Interest rates are remarkably low. When we come out of this period we will have a few really strong banks like Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) (Cramer's Take), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and, yes, Citigroup.
None of these positives are being reflected in any headlines or stories that I read about Lehman Brothers.
The people who write and speak these untruths are as out of step as the people who criticized me when I said that people in the government knew nothing.
I was gratified that the Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, said I was right and early.
I believe I am right and early again.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-14-2009 @ 10:07AM
jackfrostaw said...
Cramers' a babbling idiot. Anyone listening to this dufus is a moron also. One week he said buy JD and 2 weeks later he said stay away from it.
9-14-2009 @ 10:10AM
suzy in sc said...
I've said before and I'll say it again, when Cramer speaks no one should listen!
9-14-2009 @ 10:10AM
jackfrostaw said...
Retail's strong! What planet does he live on?
9-14-2009 @ 10:16AM
jackfrostaw said...
Commercial real estate is "about" to collapse! Hey Crame - News flash - it ALREADY is collapsing! Even utilities have been getting shut off to high rises with multiple tenants, including banks!
9-14-2009 @ 10:20AM
jolietjeff said...
Lehman or geithner? Crammer must be a Goldman/sacs spokesman since that's who benefited! Truth is Goldman, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Bank of America who posted second-quarter profits totaling $13 billion caused this recession/depression. Read the Rolling Stone magazine on Goldman and see their pyramid schemes, and look up JP Morgan on the internet and see how they started the FED. Obama has sought tougher capital requirements for banks, arguing that banks' buying of exotic financial products without keeping enough cash on reserve was a key cause of the crisis. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner ! Truth is up until Regan the Banks had to keep 50% reserves but they caused a recession then to force the governments to lower that to only 10%! Geithner is a former FED boy and surely will not suggest the real answer getting rid of the FED which is run by the BIG BANKS and replacing it with a Government run Reserve!! Nor will the abolish energy futures and HEDGE FUNDS which caused prices to increase by manipulation of the Markets! GET RID OF THE FED
9-14-2009 @ 10:43AM
Thor said...
Cramer is nothing more than a monday morning quarterback..dont be a STOCK SUCKER..AVOID THIS AHOLE AT ALL COST...
9-14-2009 @ 11:03AM
Paul said...
Not so fast. What you are about to see today is a Government Prop for Wall street Using Your Money. Yes the Government has been doing this since April. I urge Everyone to Call your Congress and Demand they Stop doing this or Lose their Jobs next November.. As a Direct result of all of these Government " Bailouts " Here is the Future Problem that Will Hit Us All by end of Year ; These so called " Bailout " and " Stimulus " Packages will produce only Minimal results and will Not work as planned. But, it is Going to Raise both Income and Property Taxes by up to 42 Percent across the Pay Scale by end of next year. You Might get a break This year But, Beware of the 2010 Surprise. Those who are below the Tax bracket will find they Too Will Be Taxed. Despite what they tell you on TV, that is the Word. The 2010 Newyear Surprize. Insurance Rates are also set to rise Big as well as inflation in Food, Energy and Healthcare. This inflation will be to make up for extreme losses and not contribute to profit. The Dollar Will Become Worthless. Yes, Oil Will Rise Again. All of this Has to happen for this Worthless Playmoney Injection to have any value at All. With the Money their spending on Bailouts, the Government Cannot Afford to Lower Taxes, only Raise them astronomicaly. Just do the Math
9-14-2009 @ 11:10AM
Bothepro24 said...
What planet are you from. Retail is strong? How can it be when the consumer has no money. You like a lot of others just aren't out in public, the busiest place in any mall in America is the food court, and sales there are down 30%. Housing, again, those taking advantage of the buys are those who were able to keep their savings, as they leave their rentals behind for their own homes that is wonderful, but who is going to move into the now vacant rentals? You might be one of the most "obtimistic" people in the world or as I fear, another "closet" economist that doesn't find his own data, only what the government wants us to read. People aren't as stupid as you think.
9-14-2009 @ 11:47AM
ebrandler34 said...
Go easy on Jim. They would cancel his show if he didn't parrot the company line now. The stakes are too high.
But, if you took courage in March/April and built some equity positions then, you are feeling pretty good. S&P should have never been at 670; it was the opportunity of a lifetime for those with steel nerves. I was ready to slit my wrists then, too. In all fairness, Jim (seconding Doug Kass) called it right then. Who wouldn't be happy with 50% gains in 6 months, and even more on trash stocks like ODP and CAR.
However, I do have problems with Jim trying to cheerlead the market at this point. There is no justification to believe that another 10-15% upside remains ahead, but as wacky as this sounds, it might come about. And I will be on the sidelines, vainly waiting for a pullback...
9-14-2009 @ 12:25PM
Praise the Lord said...
He's nothing but a let's-talk-the-market-up kind of big mouth stock broker.
9-14-2009 @ 12:38PM
Bill said...
After John Stewart outed this clown I started watching the Ed Show. I would prefer taking investment advice from a monkey and his dart board.
9-14-2009 @ 12:42PM
wdmurphy said...
is your name jim cramer or jim idiot? wake up and join the rest of the world. another reason not to listen to anything u say. your as bad as the liars in government.
9-14-2009 @ 1:52PM
Gunwriter said...
Cramer is insane and lives in a self-created fantasy world. Showing a bunch of stupid stock numbers hasn't created a single job. Exactly WHO is better off????
9-14-2009 @ 3:04PM
JP Morgan 11 said...
Cramer should shut his lying pie hole. He's a Wall St. schill whose business is to sell the little people out by promoting crap. Do your own research and learn about money first-after all it's money we're after. Currencies and global busineses that make money and only buying when the price is cheap. This guy has to mouth off daily because that's what he gets paid to do blather nothings at the sheep. We're much worse off as a nation and a people because of the crimes of Wall St. and being sold out by globalist banking elitists whoose game it is to steal, lie, and manipulate the masses for maximum profits. Cramer is just one of their tools. The Wall St. people are ghouls, criminals, liars and scumbags but it's the "game" and they run it. Stole 23.7 trillion this year alone and pass out bonuses? Yeah they're doing fine while millions lose their jobs, homes, and even their lives. Only trade technically using the trends and stops up and down and suck the middle out. But only when prices are cheap and only real businesses and commodities or become a criminal like the big boys and open a trading firm or pump and dump operation like Cramer.
9-14-2009 @ 3:33PM
Charles Carter said...
With almost 16 million unemployed and over all economy in toilet, it is laughable to consider Wall Street gamblers a barometer of our economy.
9-14-2009 @ 4:57PM
Bradford835 said...
I've heard Cramer give out some horrid advice over the years. I stay away from Mad Money.
9-14-2009 @ 5:46PM
rpgpa said...
And you all are forgetting CNBC in the accountability game!! Why do we have to hear "what goldman thinks" everyday? What a scam.. .Goldman and their little huddles. I know whats in the huddle. Buy today guys and then were gonna issue a "what we think" to CNBC and they well gladly be our mouthpiece. Then Goldman Sells ..
9-15-2009 @ 11:26AM
shadowfakx said...
Sounds like a lot of folks missed the huge ride up. Anyone check into the retail sales numbers this morning before they spoke?
Yeah, Cramer is sometimes a buffoon but you gotta laugh at his antics , take them for what they're worth and read between the lines. You just do a little number crunching after his calls; if the numbers work, well why not dive in?
I've made a few bucks listening to this " clown."
9-15-2009 @ 5:03PM
Mary Balde said...
Washington Mutual? One of the first to go under. why didbn't the government step in there?