Here's an interesting dilemma: The Federal Reserve is committed to restarting the U.S. economy, yet unexpected forces are playing against it.
What we have is a "credit bubble" that is bursting. For years, the Fed has made money readily available, fueling a boom in credit expansion. Now, after the bubble burst last year during our financial meltdown, we are still unwinding the excess credit in our financial system.
As evidence of this, banks are issuing fewer loans and are making applicants jump through hoops to get even a modest loan. Credit card companies have slashed credit lines for all its customers regardless of how prompt they are in making their payments. Credit card companies have raised rates to astronomical heights for no reason so now people are unwilling to use their cards. Banks are required to place more money in their coffers to protect themselves against further losses. Add to this the slew of home foreclosures that continue in the housing industry. Further add the almost 10 million people without jobs, and you have the right mix for a second meltdown.
All of these moves have shrunk outstanding credit. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff said that bank credit shrank at an "epic" 9% annual rate in August.
M3, the broad money supply, has been falling at a 5% annual rate. M2 money supply shrank 12.2%, and M1 shrank 6.5%
For the first time since World War II, we have a deflation in credit.
What does all of this mean? Money is the engine that drives the economy. Without it, the economy withers and dies. So with a shrinking supply of money the economy could shrink proportionately.
The Federal Reserve must address this problem. Some analysts feel that the Fed is letting this credit deflation happen to convince the Chinese that we mean business in keeping a lid on inflation. Nevertheless, The Fed will need to ratchet up the money supply or risk a double dip recession next year.
Do you believe that more money will be available next year?











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-15-2009 @ 3:02PM
John said...
West Coast Hotel v. Parrish (1937) NEVER repealed Mellon's "liquidate liquidate liquidate." If you remember your Depression correctly, the Federal Government made sure all the powerful players and their bonds (particularly Treasuries) were protected, and then proceeded to liquidate the society.
That's what the middle class wanted, expected and got. The depression proved that even with 30% unemployment, the middle class--the real power in America--will not force changes on the Federal Government.
This time the Federal Government will push the envelope even further. 40% 50% How much can it loot? That's what Obama and his hyena backers are asking.
The first step in this is to allow banks to respond the decline in economic activity by refusing to lend--even though the Federal Government controls all the banks!
So who is refusing to lend? Uncle Sam. Why? Because the powers in the country have concluded that the American economy is dead. Would you lend to the dead?
Want to avoid starving? Demand new individually enforceable rights, including rights medical care and housing. That's the only way you can stop powerful forces from using Federal policy to destroy you.
9-15-2009 @ 3:55PM
gerald said...
Double dip recession next year that wipes out almost all of wallstreet. Everyone I know is defaulting on their loans and credit cards including me!! Take your money and run. Oil and commodities including food to skyrocket because of the mass inflation and since China has a lock on almost every commodity their is. Mortgage defaults are going to get alot worse. Example if you take a house back as a bank and it cost $6 million hoe many individual hoses will it take to make one $6 million dollar loss. We are seeing prime loans and high end homes over $500,000 default because you almost can;t get a loan over $300,000 and we have lost 22% of our millionares in one year. As oil rises everything we touch and eat will go up. Cheap products and food all rely on cheap energy prices. Taxes must go up next year to pay for the 51 trillion in unfunded liabilites this country has racked up so far. We have not built a new oil refinery since 1974 or a new power plant since about the same time. Energy cost will rise by 12% a year or more in the next three years and everything else will follow.
9-15-2009 @ 7:51PM
william lindblad said...
The recession is over. So says the Fed.
Will more money be readily available to John Q. Public by next year? Possible, but doubtful. We still have bank closing by the FDIC and the full extent of commercial real estate is yet unknown. Defaults of various types are still out there and obviously, problems are far from over.
However, things do look reasonably stable. Wall St. seems to have never ending optimism and a digestive system that thrives on bad news. Short of something cosmic, the economic system may just survive. But until we start to see job creation it will be case of floating along in limbo with everything remaining stagnant.
9-15-2009 @ 10:10PM
Iridium said...
I never used it but I lost over $30k in available credit last year. Bank of America canceled my $10k line of credit because I locked in a 6.9% lifetime rate on it way back in 2000. They then reduced my platinum card credit line of $28,000 to $5,500. Chase reduced my $18,000 credit to $8,500.
Should BofA ever given me a $28,000 credit line, no. But it started at $5000 when I graduated from college and they kept increasing my limit every month trying to get me to use it. I never did.
But then I tried to buy a house in May. I was pre-approved in April for $220,000 with a credit score of 768. When I went to close in May I had dropped to 715 because of the reduction of available credit that happened in May. It wasn't enough to sink the deal but I was almost rejected by the bank because I fell below a 720. I was forced to take an extra 1/8th point on my interest rate and had to pay an extra $500 in closing costs.
The credit that should never have been given should also have never been taken away. By taking it away it destroyed good standing people's credit scores. In doing that it hurt the economy.
We may grow due to government stimulus vs last quarter but we will still be in a real recession. The recession may have ended for Wall Street but it is just beginning for the true economy.
9-16-2009 @ 5:58AM
al coholic said...
This situation is turning out to be a real catch 22. Too much easy credit is mainly to blame for our plight so the Fed floods the banking industry with free interest loans and huge TARP (taxpayer) money to stimulate lending. Instead, the big banks use the money for everything except lending. Of course if they went back to their old ways of lending we would be starting a new round of problems. Witness the idiotic cash for clunkers program that was a total waste of tax dollars.
In addition they take this opportunity to take back credit that already existed in the form of eqity lines and credit cards, with the result that many people no longer carry a credit score high enough to qualify for any loans.
Maybe a better start to a solution would be for the credit rating companies to revamp their criteria in such a way that a person who deleverages on thier own or is deleveraged through no fault of his own is not penalized for taking the prudent path.