AOL Money & Finance

Why is U.S. credit shrinking at Great Depression rates?

More

Here's an interesting dilemma: The Federal Reserve is committed to restarting the U.S. economy, yet unexpected forces are playing against it.

What we have is a "credit bubble" that is bursting. For years, the Fed has made money readily available, fueling a boom in credit expansion. Now, after the bubble burst last year during our financial meltdown, we are still unwinding the excess credit in our financial system.

As evidence of this, banks are issuing fewer loans and are making applicants jump through hoops to get even a modest loan. Credit card companies have slashed credit lines for all its customers regardless of how prompt they are in making their payments. Credit card companies have raised rates to astronomical heights for no reason so now people are unwilling to use their cards. Banks are required to place more money in their coffers to protect themselves against further losses. Add to this the slew of home foreclosures that continue in the housing industry. Further add the almost 10 million people without jobs, and you have the right mix for a second meltdown.


All of these moves have shrunk outstanding credit. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff said that bank credit shrank at an "epic" 9% annual rate in August.

M3, the broad money supply, has been falling at a 5% annual rate. M2 money supply shrank 12.2%, and M1 shrank 6.5%

For the first time since World War II, we have a deflation in credit.

What does all of this mean? Money is the engine that drives the economy. Without it, the economy withers and dies. So with a shrinking supply of money the economy could shrink proportionately.

The Federal Reserve must address this problem. Some analysts feel that the Fed is letting this credit deflation happen to convince the Chinese that we mean business in keeping a lid on inflation. Nevertheless, The Fed will need to ratchet up the money supply or risk a double dip recession next year.

Do you believe that more money will be available next year?

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Add your comments

Please keep your comments relevant to this blog entry. Email addresses are never displayed, but they are required to confirm your comments.

When you enter your name and email address, you'll be sent a link to confirm your comment, and a password. To leave another comment, just use that password.

To create a live link, simply type the URL (including http://) or email address and we will make it a live link for you. You can put up to 3 URLs in your comments. Line breaks and paragraphs are automatically converted — no need to use <p> or <br /> tags.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+132.7910,450.95
NASDAQ+29.972,176.01
S&P 500+14.861,106.24

Last updated: November 23, 2009: 10:18 PM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

BioHealth Investor Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance

WalletPop Headlines