The world of currency trading is a complex affair. Why is this?
Let's look at some factors that play in the minds of currency traders. First you have the strength of a given economy. If the economy is strong, its currency becomes stronger. But wait a minute. Doesn't a strong economy mean that we don't need low interest rates any longer and that now we can raise rates? Yes that's true but higher interest rates will only strengthen the currency even more.
There is a big chess game going on now as to which countries will raise interest rates first. If Europe or Canada raise rates first, their currencies will strengthen against the dollar. But as a consequence, their exports will suffer.The euro is trading at $1.4722. Many analysts expect it to go to $150.00.
And what about the Asian markets? Asia's foreign reserves are back to where they were before the crash of 2008. Yes, you guessed it. The yen has gotten stronger against the dollar at 90.95. You are right again if you guessed that Japanese exporters are putting pressure on the government to let the yen trade lower.
Then you have the Australians. They are going gangbusters exporting raw materials to China. You guess right again. Their currency is up 43% against the dollar.
Now to South Korea. The won is up 26% and is a prime candidate for higher interest rates.
If this is confusing, it should be so. It is what currency traders do every day, trying to figure out who's on first. It is also a good lesson on the pitfalls of FOREX trading.
One thing is certain as of today. The dollar is weak and has been getting weaker day by day. If you are a trend follower, a good bet would be to short the dollar for more on the downside.
Would you sell the dollar and buy the euro at these levels?











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-16-2009 @ 6:25PM
Julian said...
Wow, better go to Europe before the dollar hits $150/€1.
9-16-2009 @ 7:03PM
chance said...
Oh, and I'm sure it has nothing to do with the trillions and trillions of dollars our government prints and hands out?
9-16-2009 @ 8:38PM
william lindblad said...
It's more a matter of just WHO looks in better shape. The Euro was on a great rise vs the dollar BEFORE the great realization of just how far the trading in SIV's and derivatives had reached. Now Trichett and the E.U. parliament talk the hard line and stringent regulation. Quite amazing, as the Prez just gave a speech in which he suggested similar thought. I think that all should look around. The U.K. HAD a single regulator with total power which should have prevented any major problems in their domestic market. Since it didn't - so much for more regulation. If there is an example of good policy, it's to found in Norway. Real simple they just stayed conservative and did not get involved in risky finance.
All in all, trading in money is trading in ideas and concepts, the same as paper money itself. A recent blog on this same page poked fun at the gold trading and suggested that is was a farce that would soon face a major downturn. I disagreed and still feel that it continue it's upswing with 1200 a troy ounce not being a foolish prediction. I don't trade in it, this is simply an opinion based on all of the existing debt and uncertainty that still remains. Bernanke and Buffet think that the worst is over and, as they both are well informed, it may be. On the other hand, we may be seeing an increase in manufacturing, but we are not seeing an increase in hiring. This is contrary to logic. If the mainstay portion of the U.S. economy was the consumer at approx. 70% than how is said consumer of which a great number are now on UN-employment status, be in much of a position to support retail sales? Since we can discount much use of credit cards and home equity is a thing of the past, where is all of this money coming from? They are certainly not resorting to the use of savings as saving was not a large part of the personal picture for most. Those that should be in the know may not be looking this over with the scrutiny that is deserved.
I believe that this economy still has major hurdles that are to yet to be overcome and that is why interest hikes are not on the radar. Combine these two and the dollar will remain weak.
s
9-17-2009 @ 11:55PM
steve said...
Only guessing, but I'm sure that $150/euro is a typo. Our economy would have to completely crash for such a drastic change.
9-18-2009 @ 1:36PM
youngmike1345 said...
Remove margins as with all other issues-just a jew game to steal from the rest of us.
Mike Young
9-17-2009 @ 5:39AM
Dan Barnett said...
Mike Young:
"Jew Baiting" has no place in any polite or rational discussion. Please go away.
Mr. Lindblad,
I disagree with your opinion on the price of gold. Although this isn't the venue, for me, the fact that we see advertisements on selling gold, why it is a great investment etc., is reason to question how much higher it will go. When the advertisements were, "We'll buy your gold for CASH", I figured the prices would rise for a while.
9-17-2009 @ 9:19AM
kdnorcutt said...
The dollar is so weak because our government keeps printing more with nothing to back it up. Pretty soon the tissue you blow your nose on will be worth more than the dollar.
9-17-2009 @ 9:40AM
Davey Rockyfeller said...
Well folks take a look at the charts and you will see the dollar trades opposite real commodities like true money-gold and silver. Since 1971-Nixon the dollar has been backed by oil and we back the corrupt Saudi headchoppers because they agreed to only sell their sour crude for our paper. So you can see that if you can buy oil for less dollars it's value goes up. Price of oil goes up and the dollar is worth less in terms of oil-a real commodity. Gold pays no interest and is bought by traders when the dollar is falling on the charts then they buy more dollars back for their gold when it levels. Foreign currencies that pay more interest are bought using dollars when the buck is virtually cheap or free to borrow.(the carry trade) However like stock in a company a country's currency does reflect it's economic balance sheet and the USA loses money all the time. Without our military controlling the oil in the middle east etc. and going after the Caspian which will be sold to India the oil banksters that really run this country couldn't print around 24 trillion in paper to bail themselves out and not have the dollar become toilet wipes. At some point the globalist banking elite(and you are talking about Nick Rockefeller over in Chindia. Goldman Sachs, David Rockefeller's boys, the FED/IRS bankster ghouls and their secret front groups Bilderburg, CFR, Trilateral, Council of the America's etc.) the dollar will have to reflect the true global economic realities and that is the rise of China etc. One reason the dollar is being dropped slowly is the Chinese hold two trillion of them and don't want to dump them and crash their own holdings. They are gradually buying copper mines,etc. steel, accumulating gold and silver, and I believe just got the best oil pool in Iraq with BP along with Japan's Nippon Oil getting the next best pool because they have tremendous levergage over us now. Until a company or country makes a profit it's paper declines. Since they installed the chimp Bush in 2000 you will notice the dollar has lost over 30% of it's value and this will continue with their new boy Obama.(Cheney was a director for David Rockefeller at CFR and Obama's chief foreign policy advisor co-founded his Trilateral Commision) Have your money in strong currencies, gold, silver, oil, real commodites, during the decline. Basically play the carry trade using declining dollars paying almost no interest to buy strong currencies paying higher interest and real commodites priced in dollars. Yes as an American this makes me sad and disgusted but it's the reality of Rockefeller's global economy. Stockcharts.com has the best charting on the web and free charts by good traders or use your broker's charts and look out for your family and money.
9-17-2009 @ 10:34AM
Rock Gottinger said...
I would buy international mutual funds. That way you could benefit from the dollar's weakness and the other countries stock markets that are rising. You would win both ways.
9-17-2009 @ 10:53AM
ajgorm said...
The time has come for the dollar to sink a bit picking up the price of gold and stocks..Stagflation is what we will get..If the dollar loses more value and we still lose jobs...Well lets just say we will not become socialists that bow down...We will not be part of some world order- will we - we have already out sourced large scale blue collar jobs. How long will we last .But then why not as we use this oppertunity to slip back into neutrality as we bow out of a NWO to take back our old trade status before ww2...I would love that..America and apple pie and cheap baseball games-- football too..
9-17-2009 @ 11:44AM
Paul said...
The dollar lost it's value when they went off the Gold Standard, it is nearly worthless as they keep on printing more money to cover the debts, Europeans come to the United States because it is a cheap way for a vacation, it will hit 1.50 Euro to 1.00 US dollar soon, China will become the leader in the world on the economy side, we got ourselves to blame, they send their products to the United States with a lower Tariff and we just keep on buying...........
9-17-2009 @ 3:56PM
Carolina said...
Wow, certainly looks like an effort by AOL to move the dollar lower. Question is who are they trying to benefit ?
10-16-2009 @ 4:06PM
Rowdy said...
The dollar has nothing to back it up .. the dollar used to say silver certificate now it says federal reserve note . it is just a piece of paper promising a piece of the government . soon that promise won't be worth a dime . it doesnt take a genius to learn that .. i am 14 and i have known this for years
its funny
same thing happened to germany in the 1920's
it eventualy took a load cash just to buy a lofe of bread