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Why is the dollar so weak?

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The world of currency trading is a complex affair. Why is this?

Let's look at some factors that play in the minds of currency traders. First you have the strength of a given economy. If the economy is strong, its currency becomes stronger. But wait a minute. Doesn't a strong economy mean that we don't need low interest rates any longer and that now we can raise rates? Yes that's true but higher interest rates will only strengthen the currency even more.

There is a big chess game going on now as to which countries will raise interest rates first. If Europe or Canada raise rates first, their currencies will strengthen against the dollar. But as a consequence, their exports will suffer.The euro is trading at $1.4722. Many analysts expect it to go to $150.00.

And what about the Asian markets? Asia's foreign reserves are back to where they were before the crash of 2008. Yes, you guessed it. The yen has gotten stronger against the dollar at 90.95. You are right again if you guessed that Japanese exporters are putting pressure on the government to let the yen trade lower.

Then you have the Australians. They are going gangbusters exporting raw materials to China. You guess right again. Their currency is up 43% against the dollar.

Now to South Korea. The won is up 26% and is a prime candidate for higher interest rates.

If this is confusing, it should be so. It is what currency traders do every day, trying to figure out who's on first. It is also a good lesson on the pitfalls of FOREX trading.

One thing is certain as of today. The dollar is weak and has been getting weaker day by day. If you are a trend follower, a good bet would be to short the dollar for more on the downside.

Would you sell the dollar and buy the euro at these levels?

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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
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S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 07:39 AM

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