Yesterday my 2009 portfolio closed up 201% for the year. It has been an interesting journey, and while it is rather self congratulatory to discuss it, there are lessons to be learned.
Before I review some of the reasons I was able to do this I want to make it clear that I do not think this can be easily repeated; I look at the portfolio every day thinking this is too good to be true, and we all know what that usually means.
For starters, my 2009 recommended stock picks happened to work out better than I could have imagined. Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) has almost doubled and Intuitive Surgical Inc (NASDAQ: ISRG) has more than doubled.
Second, I had the courage to follow "my pal Warren's" advice, along with that of other value investors, and bought stocks and options when fear was running rampant. I was in good company calling the bottom when March 9, I posted Nostradamus was a punk! Have we reached bottom? and while I am not immune to periodic blunders, this call was spot on.
Among the stocks I jumped all over was Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC), buying in at $12.50, and selling puts to open (naked puts) at strike prices from $5.00 to $10.00 when some thought WFC might become one more financial domino. The stock has since doubled but the options doubled those returns again as the stock outpaced the overall market.
I have repeated this process of buying stocks at what I considered a value position while doing naked puts at multiple strike prices and months. This has contributed greatly to the portfolio appreciation. I shared most of this during the year when calling investors attention to the Olin Corpration (NYSE: OLN) Chasing Value: 5% yield from Olin, a 'boring' old company and Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) Serious Money: Better than Apple, Google, Microsoft & Berkshire Hathaway, Part 1. If you are looking for high yielding stocks that still have some juice in them, I think they have some upside left.
Throughout the year I have been encouraging our readers to search out bargains. While doing so it is also wise to search out the advice of the masters beyond Buffett like Sir John Templeton for one . It was his inspiration that persuaded me to invest in a few penny stocks. That led me back to a company I have been following for some time, and candidly must confess, lost money in: Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT). I bought shares at 60 cents and today it is up 63 cents, closing at $3.05 -- a 408% gain.
You cannot go back in time and you should not kick yourself for your misgivings or mistakes, however, you can learn from them. This time around I am taking something off the table Serious Money: ETF that's better than cash, I am not doing naked puts unless I would be happy to own the stock. I have also set aside my gains as a backstop in case a Black Swan appears so that I can close out any threatening options if I have to.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own all of the stocks mentioned as of today.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-18-2009 @ 7:55PM
Dan Barnett said...
You're allowed to boast, since you documented your losses in 2008. It's good to see you "on a run".
I followed your advice on NCT and although I haven't taken anything off the table, I've kept a stop-limit at about 15% under the current price on the lot.
Have a nice Holiday.
9-18-2009 @ 9:11PM
william lindblad said...
You have a right to crow as you also post when things go bad. In this arena there are two mentalities - how much can I make vs how much can I lose?. Appears that you managed to split the difference and simply took a prudent alternative.
Look for value.
I expect that the market will have some setbacks, but I don't expect them to be of major consequence. Conversely, I don't expect it to fly to the 12,000 mark either. While there are good signs, there remains a great deal of potential negatives. While there is optimism, caution will be around awhile.
You like off beat subjects now and than. How about the prospect of regulation. It has been a hot topic in the E.U. for quite some time and the Prez mentioned it in his most recent speech. This is sort of like the standing NRA argument that we already have enough, it is more a matter of enforcement. This has pros and cons as the U.K. HAD a single regulator with full power. Didn't do much good, did it?
You know something is coming as well as I do.
9-19-2009 @ 5:58AM
al coholic said...
Yes, congratulations to you on your performance. You have temporarily beaten the "Casino." To me it is a testament to stock picking and the avoidance of index funds which are about where they were ten years ago and may be in similar territory ten years from now.
Most people look at that 70 year average and don't realize that there are any number of twenty year periods when the Market posted very anemic gains.
It also bothers me that at least half of all trades are super fast computer trades that make miniscule profits but do it millions of times a day. How does that not distort the total picture, discriminate against the little guy, and possibly cause some kind of unforseen consequence somewhere down the road?
I don't claim to be an expert, I'm just wondering.