The talk of the financial town right now is how the market has entered into a recovery period. Gives you a nice, toasty feeling, doesn't it?
Well, not so fast. October is a historically temperamental time on Wall Street and, while some people believe the market is going to keep climbing higher, others are terrified it will sink like a stone.
If I were a betting man, I'd say the market will likely crash in October. What makes me say that? Here are five technical and five fundamental reasons to back it up.
Click on each sign to learn more:
Sign #1: The consumer is down and out
Sign #2: W-shaped recession
Sign #3: The banks will lead us down again
Sign #4: No positive catalysts on the horizon
Sign #5: Earnings will disappoint
Sign #6: The market is overbought
Sign #7: An indiscriminate rally
Sign #8: Light volume
Sign #9: Short covering and money managers looking to bank profits
Sign #10: An eerie similarity
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Reader Comments (Page 7 of 7)
9-21-2009 @ 7:01AM
Gary said...
10 SIGNS SHULMAN DOESN'T KNOW ANYTHING: 1. Consumer spending is up. 2. Most economists now say V shaped recovery, although it will be prolonged, 3. Banks are stabilizing, not enough punch to lead a downturn, 4. Unemployment will slack off, housing numbers will jump to beat the deadline for tax incentive, 5. Earnings have stabilized and have been better than expected for months, 6. Much money still on the sidelines waiting for a correction to jump in, therefore not overbought, 7. Rally has not been indiscriminate, has occured in all areas, 8. Volume has increased steadily over the past two months, getting stronger still (and light volume usually doesn't cause a huge crash so how can you have both light volume and a crash) 9. Short covering usually drives costs higher, 10. Eerie feelings, now theres a justification, yet time after time this market has done things that do not mimick the past. Shulman, I'm glad you are not my money manager.
9-21-2009 @ 7:34AM
bypie6 said...
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling."
Sound familiar?
Now that the GOP lost the past election, they regrouped to launched a desperate campaign against Obama ---simply because Obama outwitted (or shall I say, "out-twittered") them all.
They are now mounting a vicious, hell-bent counter-attack (however futile) with any and every weapon they can muster --- including "predicting" a stock market crash.
Oh, well, let's pass out the hankies for these poor "bleeding hearts" of the GOP vigilantes and KKK supporters.
It's their party, so let them cry out their poor hearts ---- along with Sarah "I can see Russia" Paling ---oops, Palin?
9-21-2009 @ 9:55AM
Joseph said...
So people BUYING stocks to cover shorts drives the market down? Maybe because the market always drops when people are BUYING?
I see. Perhaps someone should investigate point #9...either the article's author or the equally-sized fools who pay him to write such gibberish.
9-21-2009 @ 10:01AM
Larry said...
No more waste....Use up and repair what we own.
Not buy impulse ,use less energy. Eat fresh and much cheaper. Walk, ride a bike, More attention to our children,
and stay at home parents father or mother or grandparents.
It is all what we need
9-21-2009 @ 10:17AM
Paul said...
We are in the Eye of a Hurricane. Things are calm for the moment. The Second half of this storm may be worse than the first. The Markets are Definitely oversold and the Trillions of " Stimulus money" the Government has printed is Absolutely Worthless. We will see its Repercussions starting in October and at least a 40 percent Plunge by December and upward advances from there will be few for the following year. The Pendulum has Not yet completed its swing from the Waste and Greed Decades of the 1980s and 90s. Remember, Artificial Props Always melt and the meltdown we saw last year Cannot be controled and is Not over yet. Perhaps by 2012 but Not before. Average income Investors should Not be playing this market. The time has come to take the money and run or risk losing it to others
9-21-2009 @ 10:25AM
John said...
I wonder how much money people like the one that writes this article makes a year, 4 months ago one of these guys was in my office looking for a job
9-21-2009 @ 11:49AM
prognesub said...
I'm not worried about a stockmarket decline just as long as the government can print money and then do its daily buying up of select indexes. What is a market to do when more and more conumers are out of work and no money to spend. Somebody had to prop up the wealthy, and in this case it is the little taxpayers. Remember richies, "only the little people pay taxes".
9-21-2009 @ 6:02PM
Terry said...
How can we continue to support an economy based on consumption? What a ridiculous concept. We need to create jobs at all pay levels, then consumption can return on a more reasonable level. I hope the days of conspicuous consumption are over forever. We need to find a balance between spending and saving.
9-21-2009 @ 12:05PM
RAH said...
I find that most of the folks that make statements and provide reasoning for downturn are only trying to fill their pockets. They buy low, report good times ahead, make a few bucks and report bad times are ahead. Put money in the bank, buy low again and then announce another upswing. People need to quit reacting to short term comments and these bozos will go away.
9-21-2009 @ 12:10PM
Floyd Upperman said...
>>If I were a betting man, I'd say the market will likely >>crash in October. What makes me say that? Here are >>five technical and five fundamental reasons to back it >>up.
>>Click on each sign to learn more:
>>Sign #1: The consumer is down and out
>>Sign #2: W-shaped recession
>>Sign #3: The banks will lead us down again
>>Sign #4: No positive catalysts on the horizon
>>Sign #5: Earnings will disappoint
>>Sign #6: The market is overbought
>>Sign #7: An indiscriminate rally
>>Sign #8: Light volume
>>Sign #9: Short covering and money managers looking >>to bank profits
>>Sign #10: An eerie similarity
* None of these things are likely to derail the current market in my opinion. They are all good candidates however, to be bricks in the preverbal WALL of WORRY. Unless something totally unexpected occurs, the market is not likely to crash this October. The last two big declines have occurred soon after and/or during the bursting of large unsustainable speculative bubbles. In my opinion, no such bubble is threatening to burst right now.
Floyd Upperman
9-21-2009 @ 12:46PM
darcylizzie said...
This is an excellent website because it tells us what America is really thinking about and its present mood. A minority of us only read the WSJ and the Economist. Now if you are a "foul weather" forecaster such as Mr. Shulman, please feel free to share such news but offer us a solution at the same time. Articles such as these will have some of us falling off the cliffs like lemmings. All to say again, Mr. Shulman, by all means air your views, keeping in mind they are worthless unless accompanied by a safety net.
9-21-2009 @ 1:43PM
d.Healey said...
Shorts are finally in retreat.They ony desire to frghten people so they can buy stocks they like at a discount only to short again like a yoyo.I have doubled my money that Bush and the no regulation theives destroyed over the last 8 years in only 5 months.The markets need patient investors buying good companies.Remember real estate 101 ....income to pay the mortgage....not ponzi scheme exuberant appreciation.
9-21-2009 @ 3:07PM
Floyd Upperman said...
Can this market go higher? You bet! The most powerful financial entity on the planet is behind this stock market rally! That's the Federal reserve! And if the Fed wants the market to go higher, its probably going to go higher! The Fed has been and continues taking powerful steps to ensure the economy recovers, and that means stocks must go higher too (stock market performance is tied to the economy and tends to lead economic performance)!
Those that can buy have been buying equities! Sadly however, many have missed out on this entire rally because of fear (gloom and doom stuff). The gloom and doom stuff scares people and they miss out on excellent buying opportunities unfortunately.
Try not to be afraid. Making money requires courage. Fight your fears and invest wisely!
There is nothing wrong with buying high, as long as it continues to go higher.
Floyd Upperman
www.upperman.com
9-21-2009 @ 3:21PM
ben said...
Good, sell ALL of your stock - Mr Negative
9-22-2009 @ 7:08AM
Dennis said...
Well, I wouldn't be so Gloamy..
1. If you just own a 50/50 Mix of equities and Bonds you will do fine for the Long Term
2. JOBS? I woul like to see what the % of Those Lost Jobs are by Income? Me thinks a vast majority of them are Not Upper and Middle Income Jobs lost and that is Waht Drives our Economy..
Loosing the Unskilled an Low paying Jobs is A Minor issue..
Loosing a $25 Hr Job vs a $8/hr job is a 3-1 issue
It's the Middle and Upper Income Jobs that have to Be Supported FIRST! FOr they are the Real Spenders, the Rest are Not an hardly support anything, let alone themselves...
How many $50-$100k yr Jobs have been lost? That is what I follow..
3. Yes, we will have a "CORRECTION" of l say btwn 10-15% but not No Crash..( a crash is the S&P Dropping more than 20% and a Bear is Staying Down -20% or more for 6 mos )
INVESTORS? JUST MAINTAIN A 50/50 BAL AND YOU WILL DO JUST FINE..
SIMPLE PORT: HABDX & VWELX
TRYING TO GET MORE IS NOTHING BUT CASINO GAMBLING AND THE HOUSE AWLAYS WINS.. MEANING OTHERS WILL GET YOUR $..
9-22-2009 @ 2:11PM
Floyd Upperman said...
Stocks continue to move higher in here today. I like the overall tone and remain bullish.
I provide a number of indicators and analysis of the U.S. government Commitments of traders (COT) data on my websites. Feel free to stop by and review the site, there is a lot of free stuff on the site too.
Floyd Upperman
www.upperman
9-22-2009 @ 3:08PM
Bill said...
We can't have a full recovery until unemployment benefits run out. The govt idiots keep extending them, so it keeps prolonging the recession. No one is going to take a job at $10 to $12 an hour when the govt pays them to stay home. When benefits run out, the cheap labor will reenter the job market and productivity will go up. Right now I find people to hire because they all seem to be working for the govt. That includes my girlfriend who is on unemployment and not even looking for a job. She had a nice time this summer going to the beach every day.
9-26-2009 @ 6:31PM
Bahman Nassiri said...
I am an Iranian, and let me tell you what is going to trigger the next stock market crash.
First, the so-called recovery is nothing but the icing on the cake. When you cut the cake you will find there's no chocolate in there, but instead, it is filled with shit.
Secondly, America, Britain and and France, having swallowed that Shit-Cake, are now picking on Iran. This means World War III , since Iran will have the power to set fire to the whole region and disrupt the oil supply to the rest of the world. Also, Iran will be able to wipe the illegal state of Israel off the map.
Thirdly, Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah will attack the U.S. forces in Iraq, locked inside the Green Zone. May Allah save the chickens who invaded a country and imprisoned themselves inside a small area called The Green Zone. These idiots don't know the fact that they are surrounded by millions of enemies ?
I CANNOT BELIEVE THE STUPIDITY OF A RED-NECK IDIOT CALLED GEORGE W. BUSH WHO CAUSED THIS MESS.
10-27-2009 @ 5:53PM
dbedwards said...
Charts are found in every sunken ship wreck.