The talk of the financial town right now is how the market has entered into a recovery period. Gives you a nice, toasty feeling, doesn't it?
Well, not so fast. October is a historically temperamental time on Wall Street and, while some people believe the market is going to keep climbing higher, others are terrified it will sink like a stone.
If I were a betting man, I'd say the market will likely crash in October. What makes me say that? Here are five technical and five fundamental reasons to back it up.
Click on each sign to learn more:
Sign #1: The consumer is down and out
Sign #2: W-shaped recession
Sign #3: The banks will lead us down again
Sign #4: No positive catalysts on the horizon
Sign #5: Earnings will disappoint
Sign #6: The market is overbought
Sign #7: An indiscriminate rally
Sign #8: Light volume
Sign #9: Short covering and money managers looking to bank profits
Sign #10: An eerie similarity











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 7)
9-18-2009 @ 7:37PM
JOSHCOOP said...
This writer, Michael Shulman, has been so wrong AOL should be ashamed to publish his nonsense. Today's anecdotes are just as worthless as his writings in the past, such as:
"Portfolio Killer #2: Bank of America
Posted Mar 14th 2009 11:45AM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
In the past year, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) CEO Ken Lewis lost his mind and bought not just failed mortgage company Countrywide, but failing investment bank Merrill Lynch, killing his shareholders and turning his company into the largest zombie bank around.
Forget his bravado -- the company has huge problems and is fast becoming a ward of the state.
True shareholder value: maybe a buck"
BAC was trading at less than $3/share at the time Shuman wrote this. Today, it is nearly $18/share. Good call, Mike. Enough said.
9-18-2009 @ 7:57PM
Rasputin said...
Take ten experts or writers of this bunch and you will get ten different opinions. Screw them all.
9-18-2009 @ 7:51PM
marshall said...
I missed the Nostradamus quatrain on this October. The only thing for sure is these forecasters of doom will always be around. Just use common sense when you pick a stock. There is always something that will go up.
9-18-2009 @ 7:53PM
Steve R. said...
What's next Chicken Little? If this nut job could tell the future he would not be blathering her now would he?
Come on people, grab a limb!
Mike, break the Prozacs in half dude!
9-18-2009 @ 7:57PM
teltech54 said...
I think he is right. But these aren't the only indicators. I have already pulled my money out. Just in case. There has been too much good times. We are in for a bad time again.
9-18-2009 @ 7:57PM
Sheldon L said...
With some reservation about contradicting a colleague, I must say I strongly disagree, as does "my pal Warren".
The market may or may not go down, but crash it will not. March was the crash and we will see nothing like it. This market will just dribble along for a while and then pop again on good news.
Apple and RIMM will be on fire. JPM will be strong. Healthcare will surprise to the upside -- and Nostradamus got punked.
Nostradamus was a punk! Have we reached bottom?
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/09/nostradamus-was-a-punk-have-we-reached-bottom/
9-18-2009 @ 8:06PM
lmc3959 said...
What goes up must come down and vise a versa. Dow at 8000 before it climbs backs to 10,000. In the end no profits or losses are accounted for until you sell the paper.
9-18-2009 @ 8:16PM
kevin said...
Wasn't that supposed to happen this month.
9-18-2009 @ 8:21PM
huh? said...
look at the charts... and listen to what the 'experts' are saying. then make up your own mind. i haven't been in stocks for over 2 years... and expect not to be for another 4.
9-18-2009 @ 8:27PM
bullhorn said...
While I was reading the tea leaves in my cup this morning I noticed a strong market bias that I feel needs to be announced...Humans are irrational thus no amount of number crunching can express in logical terms what a group of irrational people will or will not do. My advice go fishing
9-18-2009 @ 9:08PM
Russ said...
Shulman is a well-known shorter, primarily with the newsletter Changewave. He makes money when the market goes DOWN.
Do a little research. On June, 2, 2009 he posted a report that you should short housing stocks, namely TOL, KBH and their suppliers, LPX and MAS and as of Sept 18, their stock prices have all gone up! So, he's predicting an October market crash to make his short forecast come true.
http://blogs.investorplace.com/sellshort/2009/06/
There's probably a 50-50 chance the market will "crash." So why not write such an alarming article to cover his butt on stocks he recommends to readers that you should short.
It's all about mud on the face-- and who likes that!
9-18-2009 @ 10:12PM
Bob said...
Gosh, I'm glad I never heard of this guy. I thought that one of the world's largest banks with a government guarantee to cover its bad debts, and the gratitude of government officials for co-operating to provide stability, would not be a loser. So I loaded up at about $4.
9-18-2009 @ 9:40PM
Charles Clifford said...
boa going from 3 to 16 and you don't think the market is overvalued. Go ahead and pump it up and watch it blow up in your face, again!
9-18-2009 @ 11:01PM
Duke said...
Right on Michael Shulman. The stock market is over valued and pie in the sky, ready for the bears to eat. October is the month economic downturns coincide with too. Cash for clunkers was a flash in the pan, and more factories and dealerships are slated to close adding to the unemployment roles. Also winter is coming and people don't spend like they do in the summer. Consumers are afraid to buy anything because their job could be next to be eliminated. People can't borrow anyways and lending institutions have been bit hard by bankruptcies and settlements for half of what people owe. Forclosures have waned but are still happening. The economy is correcting to its true value instead of the inflated fake value that was a balloon getting fuller and fuller of hot air ready to burst and it did.
9-18-2009 @ 9:53PM
rdcjaca said...
Aol owned by time warner, Republican . !!!!
9-18-2009 @ 10:02PM
John Benson said...
While i don't know enough about financial markets to judge the merits of the 2cd five technical points, I have first hand experience every day in my business with the effects of the 1st five fundamental arguments. I was expecting another downturn even before I read this article. This country lost ten years economic growth in the last twelve months. I doesn't make since to me that the stock market is almost back to a year ago level when the economy is still at ten years ago level and not even done bottoming out.
9-19-2009 @ 2:24PM
byng said...
It is excuseable for someone to make some bold comments to make a living. The Globe is round and a crash or a rally is obviously happening for years.
I can also predict since 2008 to 2018 will have ten years healthy Stock Markets which certain will have rally and crash like we have seen in the past 24 months.
9-18-2009 @ 11:04PM
tggross said...
Sign #9: Ummm. Don't people covering shorts have to BUY stocks? Won't that cause prices to go UP?
9-18-2009 @ 11:06PM
Bill said...
Next year we will have a new round of foreclosures.
9-18-2009 @ 11:39PM
Terry said...
There are several reason why, first being Wall Street and the banks have not changed a damn thing, secondly, all those cash for clunker deals are going to hit the fan, meaning not getting paid, so we will have 600,000 more failed loans on the books. Yes all the numbers from Wall Street and our own Government are bogus. Check, look and listen to the news in an objective way, you will see the truth. There is no way of getting out of a recession with out creating jobs. It is impossible.