Why have the industrials been so red-hot? Why do they seem to levitate? One reason, of course, is that people think the economy's getting better. A second reason is that even if the economy stands still vs. last year the comparisons will be amazing and nothing gets the juices going more rapidly than easy comparisons.
Why will they be so glaring? First, the layoffs have been brutal, the cost-cutting immense and it hasn't hurt at all ... yet. It is totally and unequivocally positive.
But second, these companies are going to have amazing currency translations. I can't emphasize how many times I heard them bemoan to me that they are losing business -- not just losing money on the exchange -- but actual business to competitors because the dollar made their wares too expensive.
Given that 1), many of these companies diversified away from the U.S. in order to get away from our slow growth, and 2), they diversified into places with entrenched competitors, the weak dollar sent them over the edge twofold.
Companies like Emerson (NYSE: EMR) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take), General Electric (NYSE GE) (Cramer's Take), Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) (Cramer's Take), Eaton (NYSE: ETN) (Cramer's Take), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) (Cramer's Take), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) and 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) truly were on the short-end of the stick. Now, one year later, markets have stabilized or gotten better; input costs are down big, including metals and fuel; headcounts are down dramatically, as if we were staying in a depression; and the currency has flipped in a way that will add nickels, not pennies, to the bottom line, and a major switch in the top line as we win out against foreign competition. A company like Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take) could have it best of all if it could ship that Dreamliner. It will be all Boeing, no Airbus given the exchange rates.
So, it is true that oil, banks and tech had led us. (Of those three, the techs look the most like classic industrials, but our companies tend to be so dominant that when they lose they actually lose to each other not foreigners in many cases, as in Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) (Cramer's Take) vs. IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer's Take) vs. EMC (NYSE: EMC) (Cramer's Take)). But it is the industrials that have powered this next leg. And I think that they stay powering the offense until we see the numbers and maybe even after as the estimates for this year and next year are way too low and the currency's going with these companies, not against them.
Just so you are totally clear about what a weak dollar and a recovery mean, let's take a look at Emerson, a name in my Action Alerts PLUS portfolio.
Operating margins for Emerson fell to 14.7% in its fiscal third quarter from 16.6% last year (17% guidance) because of the deleveraging from operations running below capacity. Sales stunk. With the recovery, particularly the overseas recovery, there can be gigantic swings now. For every $200 million increase in total revenue and 20-basis point increase in operating margin, Emerson will add 6 to 7 cents to its bottom line.
While margins are being hurt in the short term because of a drastic reduction in inventories -- reduced by $275 million in the third quarter, with a further $200 million for 2009 -- buyers of this stock know that this actions will make it so Emerson' s earnings explode in the turn vs. last year.
That makes Emerson a hugely compelling trade against lots of other less economically sensitive companies. While it has moved, it hasn't fully discounted all the good news. So, to sum it up, you have operating leverage, lean inventories, a turn in the world's economies with a weak dollar giving Emerson both translation gains and share gains. No wonder I still want to buy more of this one for AAPlus!
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Emerson, Honeywell and Hewlett-Packard.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-23-2009 @ 11:57AM
roln2hurt said...
No one cares what you have to say Cramer. You are a gimmick and Jon Stewart destroyed you. You are are the cum of the earth.
9-23-2009 @ 12:22PM
Iridium said...
SO the weak dollar which makes it prohibitively expensive for working Americans to purchase anything is good for global corporations because the exchange rates on goods sold in other countries will increase the bottom line profits for companies based in America?
That in turn will increase the bottom line resulting in increased share prices which will be great for investors. Yet it will do nothing to better the base level of the American economy because to do that would increase the dollar and put more people back to work which would remove the profit sources the weak dollar helps to generate.
Once again the American public gets screwed so stockholders can benefit. The answer those on TV say is for everyone to buy stock and get in on the action. BUT WHAT IF YOU HAVE NO MONEY TO BUY STOCK BECAUSE THE COMPANY YOU WORK FOR FIRED YOU SO THEY COULD INCREASE THE BOTTOM LINE.
The point is nobody should hold stock and the only way to make money should be to actually generate real profit rather than profit through accounting tricks!!!!
Wall Street 10,541,886 - Main Street 0
The game is so out of reach that main street should just give up and jump in the ocean. Damn, just imagine the profit margins if corporations didn't have to pay any workers. Wow, why aren't we going there. Oh wait we are.
9-23-2009 @ 10:39PM
ebrandler34 said...
It's actually a brilliant strategy on the Fed's part. They have taken the old expression "You owe the bank $10,000 and can't pay...that's your problem. You owe the bank $10,000,000 and can't pay...that's the bank's problem."
By blasting the economy with liquidity, investors have no choice but to flee to equities and commodities for safety. And the Chinese are boxed in for the moment, because were they to begin shedding US Treasuries it would cause a cataclysmic collapse which they can ill afford. They are stuck in the game, for now.
Essentially, the whole world is flooded with Monopoly money, and everyone has to pretend there will be no consequence. Make no mistake, though, the Chinese are going to pivot over time, exchanging US Treasuries for commodities and properties; they are not stupid. So the last entity (person, business or government) holding US Treasuries will be the biggest loser.
Cramer is right ... today, but Lord, I do not want to be on the threshold when everyone comes charging out the door when this party is over.