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For non-financial companies there were many layoffs, plant closings, and other one time expenses that hit profits hard. Those one-time costs were either partially or wholly taken in the third or fourth quarters of last year. They were one time events, extraordinary items in the expense column. They won't be repeated this third or fourth quarters. Companies have downsized to reflect current market demand. Profits should be better because of it.

Where the real eye-openers will be is when the usual comparisons are made, quarter over quarter. Many companies will show huge gains, some going from losses last year to positive results. Others will have large percentage increases if they showed any profits in the third quarter of last year. This year's results will be many multiples of those.

Take IBM (NYSE: IBM) for example as a company that has done well in spite of the recession, and how its profits will most likely compare. Last year in the third quarter, it made $1.67. This year, 21 analysts have a consensus estimate of $2.37, up 42%. It's going to show greater numbers in the fourth quarter. Analysts are looking for $3.38, over 100% above the $1.49 made last year in the fourth quarter.

Another example: Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC). This quarter, the estimate is for 34 cents, below the 49 cents of last year's third period. But for the fourth quarter, look for 27 cents a share vs. a negative 79 cents a share in the fourth quarter of last year.

Look at Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) Analysts see a negative 4 cents this quarter vs. 15 cents last year. For the fourth quarter they still see a loss of 2 cents a share, but way ahead of the 48 cents a share loss inked in the fourth quarter of last year.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is another good example. It's still losing money, to the tune of 21 cents a share this quarter. But when compared to the $1.31 in red ink in the third period of last year, that looks extremely good. The loss in the fourth quarter is estimated at 12 cents vs. $1.37 lost in the last quarter of 2008. For the full year, look for a loss of $1.45, well ahead of the loss of $3.13 in 2008. Next year, the black ink is supposed to be used to show a positive 9 cents a share.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) is another one. Consensus estimate for the third quarter is a negative 17 cents, well above the loss of 60 cents in the third period of last year. For the fourth quarter, it gets much better, still a loss but only 7 cents a share compared to a loss of $2.44 a share in the fourth of 2008. For the full year, analysts see a loss of 15 cents a share, well above the loss of $4.60 a share last year. Next year, they're seeing a profit of 9 cents.

The point here that the usual percentage increases for comparisons have to be put in historical perspective. If you own a stock that had unusually large write offs because of the recession, the headlines are going to look great as comparisons between this quarter's results and last year's same quarter numbers are trumpeted. Of course, they're going to look great. Last year was a disaster. Going forward is what really counts.

Don't just look at a headline that reads: Profits up 100% or more, and think things are great. In a way, they are great or at least much better than last year. What really matters is how things look going forward. Are the earnings' estimates projecting good growth from here? Will there be large percentage increases beyond this quarter and next? In other words, don't invest using the rear view mirror. Sometimes that view looks wonderful, just before you hit a wall.

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor, founder of Allrich Investment Management, LLC, as well as the author of Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he offers advice to investors who are just getting started.