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The week in preview: Is the rally over?

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Autumn has arrived and the quarter winds down this week. The Dow has been inching toward 10,000 for a while now, though it closed lower in the past three sessions. Can it make it to 10,000 for the start of the third quarter? If so, what will push it higher? If not, what will drag it down further?

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Orlando-based Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI), whose flagship chains include Red Lobster and Olive Garden, to report this week a fiscal first-quarter profit of $0.66 per share this week, which is 7.6% higher than in the same period of last year. Revenue for the period that ended in August is expected to be about the same as a year ago, or $1.8 billion. Analysts also foresee slight year-over-year growth in both EPS and sales in the second quarter, as well as the full year. Earnings of this dividend-paying company have beat or matched estimates in recent quarters, topping them by as much as 13 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.2%, which is better than the industry average and that of rival Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT). Darden's earnings multiple is 12x, and the First Call consensus recommendation is to buy DRI. Zacks points to Darden's strong cash flow, and Investopedia thinks the prospects are good for another earnings beat. At $35.60, shares are 10.5% higher than three months ago, and pushing toward its 52-week high again.

Boston-based consulting firm CRA International Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAI), which saw changes to its board in its fiscal third quarter, is expected to report a profit of $0.49 per share, compared to $0.32 per share a year ago. Yet, revenue for the period that ended in August is expected to be 15.0% lower, or $94.5 million. The full-year forecast is for $1.44 per share (-12.2%) on $306.3 million (-18.5%). CRA's earnings beat estimates in three of the past five quarters. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 21.5% and its earnings multiple is 15x. It's had more cash on hand than long-term debt in recent quarters, and growing net cash flow from operations in the past three. The consensus recommendation shifted from holding to buying CRAI recently. Shares have fallen 8.3% from the 52-week high of $31.47 back in June.

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), the world's largest shoemaker, is expected to report marginally lower earnings this week, but results could still please investors if they include an upside surprise and/or optimistic guidance. Analysts are looking for a fiscal first-quarter profit of $0.98 per share, five cents per share less than a year ago. Revenue for the period in which Nike saw a new board member and declared a quarterly dividend is expected to be down 9.3% to $4.9 billion. So far, the forecast for the full year is for $3.52 per share (-7.6%) on $18.7 billion (-2.3%). Nike has topped earnings expectations in recent quarters, by as much as 20 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.1% and the earnings multiple is 16x. Nike has kept more cash on hand than long-term debt in recent quarters and short interest has fallen since May. Analysts, on average, recommend buying NKE; Goldman Sachs raised its profit estimate and price target due to Nike's foreign sales. Shares are up 15.3% in the past three months to $58.64, but that's 13.5% lower than a year ago.

Another company expected to report slipping earnings is Accenture Ltd. (NYSE: ACN), the world's largest consulting firm. For the fiscal fourth-quarter during which shareholders approved the change of the company's place of incorporation from Bermuda to Ireland, earnings are expected to come to $0.63 per share, four cents less than a year ago. Sales for the period that ended in August are expected to have fallen 14.5% to $5.1 billion. For the full year, the forecast is for $2.68 per share (+1.1%) on $21.6 billion (-7.8%). Earnings have been better than expected in the past five quarters, beating consensus estimates by as much as six cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.9%, which is better than that of competitor International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM). Accenture's earnings multiple is 13x. The consensus recommendation is to buy ACN. Shares are trading near a nine-month high of $36.99.

Atlanta-based Global Payments Inc. (NYSE: GPN) completed a $300 million term loan to support strategic growth in its fiscal first quarter ending in August. Analysts are looking for the electronic payment processing services company to report $0.65 per share earnings this week, down six cents from the year-ago period. But revenue is expected to be up 4.8% to $425.4 million. And the second quarter forecast is for year-over-year growth of both EPS and revenue. Earnings of this dividend-paying company have topped expectations in recent quarters, by as much as 11 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 13.6% and the earnings multiple is 18x. Analysts, on average, recommend buying GPN. Shares have risen 18.5% in the past three months to $44.76 and have been inching up on the 52-week high of $49.39.

Wine and spirits giant Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) saw management changes and new distribution agreements in its fiscal second-quarter 2010. Earnings for the period ending in August are expected to come to $0.41 per share, four cents less than a year ago. Sales are expected to have fallen 12.8% to $834.2 million. The forecast is for modest sequential growth in both EPS and sales in the third quarter. Earnings have been within a penny per share of consensus estimates in the past five quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 8.3%, which is less than the foods and beverage industry average. Its earnings multiple is 9.2x. Constellation Brands was recently upgraded due to its debt reduction and improved operating performance, and the Motley Fool has called it a bargain. Shares have risen 24.6% in the past three months to $15.30, but they are 30.8% lower than a year ago.

This week, Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: CALM), Immucor Inc. (NASDAQ: BLUD), Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL), and Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) are expected to report more significant earnings declines, and Micron Technology Inc. (NYSE: MU) is expected to report a loss.

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DJIA-48.6710,402.28
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S&P 500-3.961,102.28

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 11:26 AM

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