Under the radar: Financial newsletters express worry, and markets climb walls of worry

Posted Sep 30th 2009 5:20PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Forecasts, DJIA

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: As the Dow slowly approaches the psychologically-significant 10,000-level, jittery sentiment prevails among short-term stock market timing newsletters, and those jitters are a sign that Dow 10,000 could be achieved soon, so says marketwatch.com Editor Mark Hulbert.

Hulbert, founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest and veteran tracker of more than 160 financial newsletters, says a contrarian analysis of investment newsletter sentiment is in the Dow's favor.

The average, recommended stock market exposure of a subset of short-term stock market timing newsletters his firm tracks is a modest 29.1% -- or about where it was on April 6, when the Dow was [about] 2,000 points lower, at 7,976, he said.

In other words, despite the 2,000-point rally, the average of the above newsletter group is no more bullish today than it was then, he said. Or, as Hulbert noted, there's still widespread skepticism, or worry. One Wall Street adage is 'markets climb walls of worry,' which Hulbert argues is in place, and, if anything, is stronger now than it was earlier in the year.

Market Analysis: Bearish sentiment has intensified among short-term market timing newsletters Hulbert surveyed, which is good news for those investors who want the Dow to rise.

Tags: bearish sentiment, BearishSentiment, financial newsletters, FinancialNewsletters, Mark Hulbert