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Microsoft downgrade: Trading opportunity?

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As I write this, shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) are down well over 3% to $24.83. That's a drop of 89 cents per share. The catalyst? A downgrade from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS).

According to Bloomberg, the institution removed the software giant from its conviction buy list. There's concern that the first quarter won't be overwhelmingly positive. Understandably, Wall Street got a little nervous and decided to book some profits. Microsoft has had a decent run as of late.

So, how did I react to the news? I bought some Microsoft.

I've been waiting for an opportunity to present itself to get back in Microsoft. Today's action seems, on the surface at least, to signal that a quick trade might be in the offing.

You've got a 3% decline. Decent volume so far on the sell-off as of this writing (by the end of the session, Microsoft should go past the 30-day average volume stat as reported at AOL quotes, although that remains to be seen), but, at the same time, I don't sense a huge, frightened rush to get out of the stock. And, if you've been watching this stock at all, you probably have noticed that it has been very resistant to downtrends.

Of course, now that I bought in, all bets are off. I hate that phenomenon: as soon as I buy, the stock goes down. I'm sure that's happened to many others out there. It's a weird existential event.

I'm not going to think about it. As the Bloomberg piece states, Windows 7 is coming up this month. This could serve as a good headline catalyst. Also, Goldman Sachs still has a price target of $30 on Microsoft, and it still rates the business as a "buy."

We'll see what happens. I got in at $24.88. I'm only looking for a move of around 75 cents to $1; I'll most likely sell my position if the per-share price goes up by a value falling somewhere in between that range.

Disclosure: I own Microsoft; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 02:23 AM

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