Costco's fourth quarter: Will Wall Street be surprised?

Nevertheless, if this downturn has proven anything, it's that no company or stock is absolutely immune from the tough environment. So, it is understandable that Costco is as challenged as any other entity.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Costco's history of beating analysts doesn't have best-of-breed credentials. Check out some of the data at that Earnings.com link and you'll see what I mean. I also remember writing about Costco having trouble in this area way back in March.

Believe it or not, though, I actually think Costco might have a chance of going beyond estimates this week. Why? Well, I'm wondering if the summer months may have been kind to the club because of the bullish sentiment in the markets. Would that have created a positive wealth effect, one that increased consumer spending at the company's locations? Plus, the stock has been on the rise over the last several months. Is this a tell?

I wouldn't bet on such speculation. Probably best to see what the market does to the stock after the report is out. Investors will be looking at the bottom line, certainly, but my favorite part of a retail story is the comps. Same-store sales must be solid to instill confidence in the current management team.

Wall Street will be looking for confirmation of an impending recovery via the results of retailers like Costco. Let's hope we get it so that the current rally doesn't have reason to run out of steam.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.