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Fidelity International's Bolton sees multi-year bull market, led by developing world

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An equity bull? Under these economic conditions? Indeed, they do exist, Fidelity International President Anthony Bolton is one, and he has two words for the future: emerging markets.

"Low growth means low interest rates, and actually that's one of the best environments for stock-market investing," Bolton, who oversees about $141 billion, told Bloomberg News Tuesday. "Anything that can show growth in this low-growth environment is going to be bid up by investors. It's very pro the emerging-market world versus the developed world."


Bolton, who added that he sees a "multi-year" bull market in equities, is particularly fond of Chinese stocks because government policies will support sustained GDP growth there without re-heating China's inflation.

Bolton's outlook is in-sync with the International Monetary Funds latest World Economic Outlook, which sees stronger economic growth in the developing world, 5.1%, than in the developed world, 1.3%, in 2010. Overall, the IMF expects global growth to accelerate to 3.1% in 2010 from a 1.1% contraction in 2009. A 3.0% growth rate is considered to be adequate growth, but not spectacular growth, for the global economy, which all the more highlights the severity of the likely, contraction in global GDP in 2009.

Market/Economic Analysis: Assuming the historical link between sustained, strong GDP growth and rising equity prices holds, the best opportunities for outsized stock gains, as Bolton forecasts, are likely to be in emerging markets. Now, if a portion of that GDP growth - particularly in the new middle class countries of China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Russia - also contains a sustained increase in domestic consumer spending, that would boost both U.S. GDP growth (stemming from exports) and create a more-balanced global economy.

But that's getting slightly ahead of current GDP conditions (and it may be too much to ask). For now, let's see how Q3/Q4 demand in emerging markets is for the U.S.'s high-value-added business products, such as air conditioning systems, escalators, machinery, infrastructure supplies, and commercial airplanes, among other products.

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S&P 500-0.011,106.23

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 02:50 PM

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