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Southern Co.: A play for low-risk investors

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Southern Co.'s (NYSE: SO) stock has meandered over the past four months, but rare is the day one should sell an electric power generation play.

Hence, I'm reiterating my Buy rating for SO, first recommended on June 19, 2009 at a price of $30.61.

Institutional investors appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach regarding the economic recovery in and around Atlanta, Georgia, SO's core area. The commercial side of energy use (primarily the industrial segment), will take longer to snap-back, but a quicker residential recovery should offset that industrial sluggishness: the greater Atlanta region did not experience as large a residential housing bubble as the West and East coasts, hence the bust was not as severe, from a household formation standpoint.

Other SO positives: its dividend stream, experienced management, 42.6 megawatts of generating capacity, and the predictability of operations in a steady-habits region of the United States. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for SO are $2.35 to $2.45.

Technically, Southern's stock has held a re-test of a low at $26.50 and now has good, double-bottom support at that level. The chart also remains in a mild uptrend, which is acceptable for a utility. The P/E of 16 is not low, but given the company's stability and the attractive mix of safety, good dividend, and decent prospects for growth, the scale is tipped well toward a Buy.

Stock Analysis: Southern Co.'s is a low-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 25% position in SO now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your SO position before December 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $17.

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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 10:17 AM

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