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Cramer on BloggingStocks: The market sees the light on employment

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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the relentless ascent can only point to a belief that Congress will put jobs on the front burner.

Washington's listening. I think that Washington has had its fill of health care talk and is anxious to focus on jobs. President Obama wants to dither now with carbon capture, content that the stimulus plan, however bogus it was, is doing the job. But Congress senses that they are 13 months from a debacle and they are going to bring employment to the front burner.

That's what I think the market is saying. When I spoke to Dan DiMicco last night, the CEO from Nucor (NUE) (Cramer's Take), he showed devastating evidence of the real unemployment, now at about 18%, and the lack of job creation coming out of this recession compared to the last four recessions.

DiMicco recognizes that some of that is caused by Chinese dumping, and he is thrilled the president's addressing that. But most if it is an inability of the private sector to hire, either because of uncertainty or a lack of demand, even though there is no lack of demand for projects like natural gas pipelines in infrastructure.

Dan's in the camp that says a combination of a push to energy independence through natural gas -- something we are actually energy self-sufficient in, instead of pipedream carbon capture proposed by the black-lung-no-rainbow coalition (what I call the coal lobby) -- and the need to install pipelines to transport it, we can create enough jobs to get us back on track.

I have no idea how natural gas will fare. The president seems committed to coal as the bridge fuel, which frankly makes his environmental obsession seem disingenuous to me.

But I think that DiMicco's going to win in Congress. That's why I think the dollar's going lower and gold going higher. Congress will do whatever it takes to put people to work.

And that's what could drive a market obsessed with jobs -- as it rightly should be -- to higher levels than we have seen, and it's made those who say it is over dead wrong.

When I listen to DiMicco it very clear to me that Congress may be the chief culprit here, assuaging us with a stimulus package that didn't create infrastructure hiring, the weakest segment of the economy. Congress has also created so much uncertainty that you would be stupid to hire anyone right now.

Now, just so we are sure, this kind of stimulus talk and ultimate stimulus has the ability to take the S&P 500 to 1200, something that my bullish-leaning friend Dan Fitzpatrick and my bearish-leaning friend Bert Dohmen agree on. I am thinking that, too. Fits and starts to get there, but no more than a 3%-7% fit before we start again, and the minus 7% is the least-probable scenario given the need for money managers to catch up to the averages by having more exposure.

Jobs. They get it. That's what's changed. That's why all of the markets are looking through last week's employment number and are trending higher, not lower, into the end of the year.

Random musings: I have had vociferous exchanges with people, including chatting in our own flagship site, about how good retail sales really were. I regard this as heresy. I have a vested interest in saying they are bad -- I am not weighted enough in retail for Action Alerts PLUS and was hoping the sector would come in, but the results were too good to have that happen. Why do people not realize what was expected was not chimerical? Plus, the distribution of strength was encouraging. Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) (Cramer's Take) was good in the East, JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) (Cramer's Take) good in the Southwest, as an example.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 22, 2009: 09:23 AM

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