Marriott beats in Q3, but is stock too high to buy?

Revenue per available room declined over 23% for comparable company-operated properties around the globe; the metric plummeted over 21% for worldwide comparable systemwide properties. This is a very important measure of Marriott's health, and as can be seen, Marriott isn't too healthy. CEO J.W. Marriott, Jr. said that the North American system's revenue per available room did better than expected because of various promotions.

Maybe that's true. But the big question is, what should an investor do about the stock? I think, with a company like Marriott, you absolutely have to take overall market direction into consideration. Shares were near a 52-week high as of Thursday's close. The equity has been on a big uptrend. Is this the kind of name you want to buy on strength?

I say: maybe not. The technician in me says buy, sure. Market seems bullish, the 52-week high is likely to be broken, and a new uptrend could indeed emerge.

The contrarian in me, however, continues to wonder if a correction is coming. If that's the case, I only want to be in stocks that have the fundamental goods to back up the technical strength. Marriott doesn't make the cut because I am still worried about the macro climate. Travel will continue to be challenged by the cautious-spending mentality that has gripped the collective mind of the consumer.

I've been wrong about a lot of situations this year, and have taken on many opportunity costs. However, I'd rather come down on the side of caution than expose my portfolio to an excessive quantity of risk. Marriott is risky to me. Next time it makes a run for a 52-week low, I'll pay attention. In the end, I'm okay with letting this one go.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.