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Cramer on BloggingStocks: It's a mistake to fade 'em now

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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you take your life into your own hands if you fade the opening in today's market.

A year ago with the futures up, all you could think of is how much you wanted to "fade" that opening, how great it would be just to lay out any shorts into strength. You could choose pretty much anything going into earnings season.

The techs? Last good quarter. The banks? A travesty. You didn't even know if the banks you are short would survive. The oils? Free fall. The metals? Amazing downward pressure coming from hedge fund redemptions. The insurers? Will they make it? Retail? The balance sheets looked terrible going into what would be a terrible holiday selling season. The autos and auto-related? Disaster.

Now you fade the opening you take your life into your own hands. Your hope is some sort of 10 a.m. register ringing from people who might have bought Friday. You have an earnings season coming up in which companies will begin to report year-over-year positives and their restructurings, in some cases, like Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), are just beginning to kick in.

Meanwhile a tech cycle from out of nowhere, consisting of smart phones and netbooks is on fire. You can buy companies such as Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (Cramer's Take) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) (Cramer's Take). The networkers, led by Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take), seem back in business with a vengeance.

Semiconductors are making so much money that it looks like the orders are roaring in for an ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) (Cramer's Take) or a Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) (Cramer's Take). Do you want to get short ahead of Intel? Ahead of IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer's Take)?

This morning Philips (NYSE: PHG) (Cramer's Take), the big consumer company, reports a great number and heralds the return of the consumer. Good time to short Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) (Cramer's Take)? I don't think so.

Housing's bad. Short JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take)? Short Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take)? Why? What do they have to do with anything? They stand for higher gross margins and great plays on the yield curve.

Minerals? Not only are they flying but anything that helps get them out of the ground is roaring. See Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG) (Cramer's Take), Freeport (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take), Vale (NASDAQ: VALE) (Cramer's Take), BHP (NYSE: BHP) (Cramer's Take), Bucyrus (NASDAQ: BUCY) (Cramer's Take), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take).

In this backdrop foreclosures and commercial real estate securitization and joblessness are the bears' weapons. But they are no longer secret. They are front and center, trotted out as amorphous bogeymen not capable of standing up to the need to put money to work as aggressively as possible. In fact, what they do is provide reasons for people to be less bullish than they would like and to keep people out of the stock market until it could be too late.

So, fade 'em if you want. But remember there's a wave of people who want in and are hoping you will knock down the futures for a better entry point and they know that the worries, which preoccupy the media, show no signs of abating, even as the selling abated a long time ago.

Random musings: Today begins my book tour for Getting Back to Even. If you need strategies or ideas on how to play this market I think I've got them, a tactical and strategic approach to making money for now and the next couple of years.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Vale.

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DJIA-14.2810,318.16
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S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 22, 2009: 03:31 PM

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