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IEA's increased 2010 oil demand forecast is good news for U.S., global economies

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Rising oil prices a positive development for economies around the world? For the new investor, that may appear to be a contradiction in terms, but experienced investors know it's not.

The International Energy Agency's 350,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) increase in its 2010 global oil demand forecast to 86.05 million bpd is a positive development for both the U.S. and global economies – positive, that is, provided oil prices don't return to stratospheric levels.


That's because rising oil use implies an increase in commercial activity and trade in emerging markets – i.e. an increase in economic demand. At some point, some of that increased demand has to trigger more activity for U.S. businesses: a new factory in Australia might buy machinery from a U.S. machine manufacturer; a mall developer in India might buy escalators from United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), and an agricultural company in Brazil might order more farming equipment from Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), and so on.

What would be even better? If consumers in recently-established middle-classes in China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Argentina start buying more consumer goods from the United States and Europe. Both the U.S. and global economies need an increase in emerging market consumer demand to make up for belt-tightening by U.S. consumers, who after a decade of over-consumption, have entered a 'frugal consumer' era.

Now don't misunderstand: if the price of oil once again sails through $100 per barrel and remains at triple-digit-levels, that would be net-negative for the U.S. economy, and reduce global GDP growth, as well, (except in oil exporting countries). Oil traded Monday at mid-day up $1.87 to $73.64 per barrel.

But so long as oil demand remains in an uptrend, investors should interpret it as a sign that global demand, and in particular emerging market demand, is recovering – a bullish development for the U.S. and global economies.

Economic Analysis: The wild card in the above is, of course, the emerging market consumer: if historical consumption rates prevail, the global recovery will be mild. However, if these new, international consumers spend more, that activity has the potential to create strong global GDP growth, and some of that spending would benefit U.S. companies.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 03:59 AM

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