Some would like to argue -- assuming ultimate conference committee reconciliation of likely House/Senate health care reform bills -- that it's the cap-and-trade emissions bill designed to limit/reduce greenhouse gas emissions that play a large role in climate change. However, even though in theory it would be ideal for Congress to have committed to limit emissions prior to December's international climate talks in Copenhagen, in practice, it's going to be hard to pass a cap-and-trade bill during a recession, due to the impact the bill would have on affected U.S. businesses.

Further, there's another issue of utmost importance to the Obama administration and congressional Democrats: jobs. The economy has shed more than 7.2 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, with the unemployment rate rising to 9.8%. Health care reform, if passed, would be a watershed moment -- on par with the establishment of Social Security in 1935 and Medicare in 1965, but it won't amount to much if job growth does not resume and the U.S. unemployment rate keeps rising. That's because job growth holds the key to corporate revenue and earnings growth. True, for awhile revenue and earnings can rise even while jobs are being cut, but that trend can not continue indefinitely.

Job growth: key driver of earnings growth

In addition, job growth not only holds the key to earnings growth, it also will play a large role in determining the fate of the majority party in Congress, the Democrats, and the Obama administration. That's because job growth (and the economy more-generally) is an issue that has historically played a large role in determining a voter's choice. Also historically, in an off-year congressional election the party in charge of the White House loses about 14-16 seats in the House and a few seats in the Senate.

But if job growth does not resume by June 2010, the American people will hold the Democrats responsible, because they're the party in power -- and Democratic congressional seat losses will be much higher, perhaps as many 30-35 seats in the House and 4-5 seats in the Senate. Conversely, If job growth does resume by June 2010, with companion improvement in the overall economy, the Democrats will lose only a few seats in the House and maybe 1 or 2 in the Senate. The reason June 2010 is the cut-off point is that most Americans make up their mind whom to vote for about 5-6 months before an election: they then take the summer off, and rarely in the two months after summer, (September, October) do the short-term issues change so much that a voter switches his/her vote.

In other words, the Democrats have until June 2010 to get the great American job creation machine rolling again if they hope to retain their large majorities in Congress.

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Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the U.S. presidency and the U.S. economy.