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American Airlines: A play with promise, but also with high risk

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There is that old international economics joke that goes, 'And in the end, there will be 3 banks.'

Actually, up ahead there may only be just 3 U.S. airlines, and AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), parent of American Airlines, will likely be one, which is why I'm reiterating my Buy rating for AMR, first recommended on June 25, 2009 at a price of $4.28. If you bought AMR then, you're up an impressive 79%.

If excitement and dynamism are your investment fancy, then a U.S. airline stock is not for you. If, however, you can tolerate high risk for an opportunity to earn a really outsized gain, then AMR is your cup of tea.

AMR has done a good job reducing capacity and containing costs amid the substantial decline in U.S. air travel in 2009. Further, the airline sector seems to be hit by a new challenge every few months: rising jet fuel prices, suddenly frugal consumers reducing travel, and now the second winter season for the H1N1 flu, which may further restrict travel. Fortunately, most operating negatives have already been factored-in to AMR's stock price. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for AMR are a loss of $4.57 and a loss of 2 cents.

Still, assuming recovering U.S./global economies, AMR is well-positioned to benefit from the eventual resumption of travel growth: AMR has key hubs in Dallas/Ft. Worth, Chicago, Miami, St. Louis, and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Hence, it's in an advantageous position in a key domestic growth zone (Dallas) and internationally (Latin America). Further, given that emerging markets will be a key growth area from expansion of middle class and disposable income standpoints, the scale is tipped in favor of a Buy for AMR.

Technically, AMR stock chart is in an uptrend, and recently pulled-back after clearing the $8 mark. View the pull-back as a Buy opportunity.

Stock Analysis: AMR Corp. is a high-risk stock. If you've already purchased the company's shares, hold them. If not, consider buying a 25% position in AMR now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your AMR position before December 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $1.50.

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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has frequent flier miles in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR) and in Air France.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 10:32 PM

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