Earnings preview: Has Harley-Davidson turned around?


Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG), cultural icon and a leader in sales of high-end motorcycles, is scheduled to discuss its third quarter 2009 financial results in a conference call Thursday at 9:00 AM ET, hosted by CEO Keith Wandell and CFO John Olin. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

During three months that ended in September, Harley-Davidson celebrated the 40th anniversary of Easy Rider, rolled out new models for 2010, and appointed a new CFO. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect this Milwaukee-based, dividend-paying company to report that earnings fell 70.4% from a year ago to $0.21 per share, but that's up 61.9% from the second quarter. Sales for the third quarter are expected to be 22.6% lower than a year ago to $1.1 billion.

So far, the full-year forecast is for a profit of $0.60 per share (-78.5%) on sales of $4.2 billion (-24.4%). However, Harley-Davidson's earnings have fallen short of expectations in recent quarters.

The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%. The First Call consensus recommendation remains to hold HOG, but Wells Fargo just upgraded Harley-Davidson, believing that it is poised for growth.

Harley-Davidson shares are more than 50% higher than three months ago, but they are still about 10% lower than a year ago.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 11:05 AM

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