Winnebago (NYSE: WGO) is up well over 8% at the time of this writing during afternoon trading. Yep, it's one of those stories: post a revenue decline and a loss and get rewarded. For the fourth quarter, sales dropped 30%, and the loss per share on an adjusted basis came in at 19 cents.
The full-year picture was also rather dire. Sales plummeted over 60%, and the company lost an adjusted $1.28 per share. Just awful. How in the world can the market love these numbers?
You probably know what's coming next. According to Reuters, the experts on Wall Street were expecting a loss of 24 cents per share for the quarter. So, by that measure, management delivered a solid report.
But was it really that solid? Well, actually, if you look at the full-year statement of cash flows, you'll find some good news. Winnebago used cash to fund operating activities in 2008. This year, the business generated cash for operations. There was even some free cash left over after capital investments were made. Inventory reduction helped to drive this change.
Of course, if you're cutting inventories, then you might be having a hard time. Still, Winnebago said it's doing well in terms of market share. And, according to this item, the company may be ready to put the bad times behind it. Apparently, the sales-order backlog is hinting that the bottom may have been put in by now.
Who knows, though. Winnebago, like so many other stocks, is near a 52-week high. Sure, things are getting better, but when I consider recreational vehicles as an investment idea, I am hesitant: they cost a lot of money, and people are still trying to decide whether to spend discretionary sums or throw them in the bank. Since many companies are hitting 52-week highs at the same time, I think I'd rather look at better names. Winnebago is a leading brand in its industry, no doubt, but I would prefer to check out other sectors at this point in the cycle.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.











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