Toy maker Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT), whose competitors include Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK), issued its Q3 release this morning. The numbers weren't as fun as some of the company's products, but investors are giving the stock a healthy bid as I write this. What would be the reason behind such reaction, especially on a down day for the Dow?
First, here's the data. Sales decreased 8%. They were affected, in part, by currency translation. Earnings per share came in at 63 cents. This was two pennies below last year's income figure. According to Bloomberg, that profit performance misses expectations by a penny, but I've read other sources which report that Mattel met expectations. I think I'll call this one in line with projections.
I wanted to cite that Bloomberg article because it offers a clue as to why Mattel is trading up today. After checking out the report, I would have expected some profit-taking to occur, considering the run-up Mattel has already experienced (the stock is close to a 52-week high).
Looks like investors might be overjoyed by the gross margin (revenues also may have played a role, as they beat estimates, according to Reuters; I wasn't too impressed by them, though). The metric has apparently hit a multi-year high, driven by favorable trends in commodity expenses.
That's all fine and cool, but shareholders should pay attention to another metric, too. Barbie sales declined 8% in the third quarter. I think we can all agree on the importance of the brand to Mattel's long-term future. The company has to figure out a strategy for maintaining the sales health of this line, as well as bringing up the brand image of the doll.
Of course, this isn't the fourth quarter. Presumably, things are about to pick up. That could be what today's bid on Mattel is actually all about. We've been hearing that this is going to be a better Christmas for all, so traders, and perhaps investors alike, are setting themselves up ahead of the season. In theory, anyway.
As for me, I wouldn't be buying today. It's Friday, the indexes are down, and Mattel, which is up over 5% as I conclude this piece, is way too high for me to even think about. The gross margin performance might predict better times ahead, but I'll wait for more information from the company as to its progress during the holidays before contemplating a position in this consumer business.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.











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