What is the Beige Book and what does it contain? The US Federal Reserve keeps anecdotal reports on the economy in what is called the "Beige Book." Here are some notes on the key topics:
- There was some improvement in two of the hardest hit areas -- residential real estate and manufacturing.
- Gains in economic activity generally outnumbered declines.
- "Grim" was how the Fed described commercial real estate, "with conditions described as either weak or deteriorating across all districts." Regional banks said they did not see improvement in commercial real estate going forward into 2010.
- Labor markets were typically characterized as weak or mixed.
- In the auto industry, the "cash for clunkers" left inventories depleted and slower sales in its wake.
- In the residential real estate market, the $8,000.00 first time buyer program did help a bit to lift sales. However, residential construction remained weak.
- Measures of discretionary and business spending were mixed.
- Broadway theater attendance picked up somewhat, but remained slightly lower that last year.
So then, what can we glean from all of this? With all the hype of the recession ending, this report gives a rather sober assessment of current conditions. We are sloshing around near the bottom, barely treading water. Some sectors, notably commercial real estate and unemployment are getting weaker. This does not bode well for 2010.
This probably is why the Fed is keeping interest rates at 0 -- .25%. The economy is still fragile and any unexpected event could tip the scales back into the "double dip" mode.
Meanwhile, the dollar keeps dropping, oil is now over $80.00 per barrel and commodities are surging. Now, too, the stock market is taking note of all of this and fell again today. The Fed, it seems is more worried about deflation and is willing to let the dollar fall and commodities rise to reinflate the economy. The nasty result of all of this is that price rises in raw commodities will work their way into finished products and then to the consumer.
Should the Fed stabilize the US dollar or should it keep the same policies of a weak dollar and surging commodities?











Add your comments