Buying Boeing requires bravery after Q3 loss


Boeing (NYSE: BA), an aerospace entity whose colleagues include Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), had a very tough earnings report today. Reading about it is not for the shareholder who cannot stand even the smallest amount of pain. According to this Bloomberg article, Boeing missed estimates and posted a woeful loss because of delays for a couple of jet products.

Boeing lost $2.23 per share in the third quarter. The comparison is pretty tough, because in the similar quarter last year, the company earned 96 cents per share. Boeing was expected to lose somewhere around $2.12 per share, according to Earnings.com. Unfortunately, the guidance for the full fiscal year is pretty bad, too. What once was a range between $4.70 per share and $5.00 per share has now dropped to one with a low of $1.35 per share and a high of $1.55 per share.

Simply disappointing. Yet, the market has been aware of the problems with the company for a while now, as this example piece from The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) back in June makes evident. And it apparently has gotten used to the concept of the delay. In fact, if you adjust the stock chart for Boeing at AOL quotes to the six-month setting, you'll observe a business that has bounced off its lows quite energetically, as if much of the bad news has already been priced in.

The chart does fascinate me from that point of view, but I will admit a species of puzzlement at today's price action. I honestly would have counted on a little more punishment for today's results. As I write this, Boeing is only down roughly 1% in share value. Come on, with those results and guidance? We even got a downgrade on the company this week.

I'm not a fan of the Boeing situation. And even though the stock seems to be holding up relatively well, I'm not calling this one a buy. Instead, I'd suggest the following strategy for consideration: if the stock pulls back significantly, take a look at initiating a trade. What do I mean by significantly? I'd like to see something closer to $40 per share.

Is that too significant? Maybe. With so many other better ideas out there, I would need such a margin of safety. Boeing will be around for decades to come, and it will bounce back. The short term, however, may not be kind to the business, since the financial fundamentals are at risk from current issues.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 07:48 AM

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