Hershey (NYSE: HSY) had a more than acceptable third quarter in terms of bottom-line growth, but it looks like the market couldn't care less. As I write this, shares of the candy company are trading down 4.4% in the afternoon session, on extremely sweet volume (and by sweet, I mean bad).
On an adjusted basis, Hershey increased per-share profit by 14% to 73 cents. According to Earnings.com, analysts were only expecting 67 cents per share. Hey, what's going on? The Dow and the S&P 500 are in the green, and the NASDAQ is only down slightly. Shouldn't investors be happy with results like these?
There might be some logical points behind today's sell-off. First, sales were essentially flat. Now, when you think about it, the fact that management was able to increase earnings even in the absence of revenue expansion should be considered impressive. Right? Well, as we get further along in the bull rally, some headlines are indicating that Wall Street is getting tired of declining top lines. Institutions have already run stocks up on better-than-expected income while ignoring growth in other areas.
A second issue to put on the table is one mentioned in this piece by The Wall Street Journal (subscription required). Hershey increased some prices, and volumes unfortunately suffered. It's a delicate balancing act, but I think management, for the most part, did the right thing in this case. It's better to adjust prices as needed and then hope that the brand equity of the portfolio can help to keep the integrity of the consumer base as solid as possible.
The third thing to consider is a technical one. Although the stock hasn't been too exciting the last few months, it is up on the year-to-date frame. Maybe some shareholders simply wanted to book profits.
Something else to ponder is the potential acquisition of Cadbury (NYSE: CBY) by Kraft (NYSE: KFT). No, I can't say this is affecting today's price action, but it is nevertheless another element for shareholders, or those who are mulling becoming part of the club, to include in the process of due diligence.
I didn't find the earnings to be worthy of the sell-off I'm currently seeing. The tape is the tape, though, and that's how it is; rather existential, don't you think? Halloween is coming up, and I'm sure Hershey will get its fair share of the excitement generated by the dark holiday. Of course, I wouldn't buy Hershey just because of trick-or-treat time. Instead, I would buy for the long term. Traders, on the other hand, may want to be careful about opening a position on today's weakness.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-22-2009 @ 5:06PM
alanwahlstrom said...
Since Hershey's closed their production plants in the USA and moved everything to Mexico, our family hasn't bought a single piece of their products.. and never will again.