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Microsoft breaks out on Q1 release

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This definitely caught me by surprise. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), up over 6% (as of this writing) on first-quarter results, with huge volume backing the surge. On a Friday. Really?

Believe it, because it's true. Net sales may have declined 14%, and diluted earnings per share, which came in at 40 cents, may have also dipped 17%, but it didn't matter. According to Reuters, the bottom line beat the estimate of 32 cents by a wide margin. Also, it was reported that the top line went beyond the expected number. This was probably even more important than the profit performance. In addition, cash from operations experienced a super boost.

The great thing about Microsoft's position at this point in time is that it has the Windows 7 catalyst to look forward to in future quarters. And with the company striving to operate as efficiently as possible, it should hopefully extract as much as it can from its net sales, even though the comparisons in that regard might be tough for a while.

Reuters highlighted the excellent performance of the entertainment and devices segment. Apparently, the new Halo software was a hit on the Xbox platform. Unfortunately, the online division saw more red ink.

Overall, I believe Microsoft, which competes with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), will continue to take advantage of the recovering macro environment, assuming it truly is recovering. As we all know, this has been a debatable point, and if the markets are to continue heading up, we should expect the journey to be anything but a smooth ride (read: be wary of corrections!).

Nevertheless, I'm bullish on Microsoft. In fact, even with the euphoric buying this afternoon, I'm almost tempted to open a trading position. I mean, the stock has to be heading to $30 at the very least.

But, as much as I would like to do that, I try to stick to the rule of buying a strong stock after it retreats. Especially when it is surrounded by an earnings situation. So, I'm going to stay on the sidelines today, and let the institutions put in the bids. Again, this is a Friday, and getting into something on a weekend does take some guts.

Traders need to watch the price action next week to gauge how the stock is doing. Long-term investors, however, can simply be pleased with the beaten expectations and continue to hold. That's my opinion, anyway.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 22, 2009: 06:14 AM

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