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The Chicago Federal Reserve has an index of economic activity for the region. In September, the index weakened. It stood at a minus 0.81, down from a minus 0.65 in August and a minus 0.90 the previous month.
A reading at zero or above indicates expansion in economic activity. Unfortunately, these readings show that the region is still in a deep recession.
The Chicago Fed uses a three month moving average to smooth out the raw numbers. Using that average, the reading for September was a minus 0.63, and a minus 0.96 in August.
The Fed said that a reading above minus 0.70 has indicated the end of past recessions. Whether or not this is the case in this recession remains to be seen.
There are 85 indicators in the index. Thirty two of the 85 indicators were positive. That still leaves the remainder 53 indicators in the negative column.
There is little to do at this point except to wait and see if the historical reading above minus 0.70 improves for October and further on to signal the end of the recession for that region of the country.
Do you see economic activity improving in your area?
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