Congress moves closer to extending unemployment benefits


The U.S. Congress is moving closer to passing a bill that would extend unemployment benefits in all states by 14 weeks.

As of late Wednesday, the bill had paused in the Senate, as members offered various amendments, some of which are designed to limit the allocation. If passed, the bill would then have to be reconciled with a House bill passed a month ago that extends benefits by 13 weeks in high-unemployment states.

The pressure is on Congress to act due to the U.S.'s high 9.8% unemployment rate, and the lack of jobs being created in the economy. Since the recession's start, more than 7.2 million Americans have lost their jobs as of September, with officially 15.1 million Americans out of work, according to U.S. Labor Department data. Further, the number of long-term unemployed -- those out of work for 27 weeks and longer -- totaled 5.4 million.

However, although the official, base national unemployment rate is 9.8%, most investors know that the effective rate is much higher than that: the base unemployment rate does not count as unemployed those individuals who stopped looking for work, even if that break was only for a week. When those citizens are included, as well as those who are working part-time because they can't secure full-time work -- an indicator the Labor Department calls U-6 -- the U.S. unemployment rate increases to a staggering 16.1%.

Fiscal/Economic Analysis: It goes without saying that the view from here argues that Congress should swiftly pass the unemployment benefits extension. Moreover, Congress should brace to allocate even longer benefits. That's because although the U.S. economy is apparently growing again, monthly job losses could continue for months -- well into 2010.

Consider this statistic: During the Bush administration, after the end of the last recession in 2001-2002 and the resumption of GDP growth, the U.S. economy continued to lose jobs for more than a year.

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