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Procter & Gamble earnings preview: Are expectations too low?

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Before the opening bell sounds on Thursday, October 29, Cincinnati-based Dow component Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) will report fiscal first-quarter earnings. Analysts believe P&G will report earnings of 99 cents per share with sales of $19.83 billion.

These expected results are lower than those of a year ago, when the company saw earnings of $1.03 per share and revenue of $22 billion. P&G set expectations low for this quarter, as it announced early in the quarter that sales are expected to fall again. Is this truly the case or is it a smart business move?

This may sound a bit like a conspiracy theory, but what if P&G lowered the expectations on purpose? That way, simply matching expectations could be considered an upside surprise. Furthermore, P&G has taken cost-cutting steps in the past quarter, and may have bolstered sales by lowering the prices on some of its consumer staples. While it is believed that these moves will have a bigger impact on the second-quarter, there could be some preliminary benefits in the first quarter.

Technically, P&G has suffered along with its Dow brethren throughout the economic crisis. That said, the recent recovery-rumor-sparked rally has helped the stock reclaim support from its 10-week moving average. This trendline has been the catalyst for P&G's advance, which has brought the stock face to face with resistance in the $57 region. Recently, the shares have backed away from this area, but a positive earnings report or forecast could help the stock muddle its way through the $57.

Of course, the $60 level looms overhead to provide resistance. My concern about this round-number level is the fact that it acted as support in the past. Oftentimes, we will see former layers of support act as resistance when given the chance -- will it happen here? The shares could definitely use a kick in the rear, and earnings reports are the kind of news events that can cause quick stock moves.

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Last updated: November 23, 2009: 11:41 AM

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