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Visa charges through Q4 estimates, but future cash flow is the story

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Visa (NYSE: V) is one of my favorite businesses on Wall Street. It should be an excellent long-term investment. People will always use branded credit cards, and Visa doesn't take a lot of risk. It simply collects a little of the spoils on each transaction. What a model!

According to TheStreet.com, Visa increased top-line sales by 10% in the fourth quarter, and expanded per-share profit by 28% to 74 cents, excluding certain items. Forecasts were for 72 cents per share.

Visa only recorded a 5% increase in cash from operations on a full-year basis according to the actual corporate press release. Not so hot, sure, but going forward, Visa expects free cash flow to be excellent. For 2010, management believes the twelve-month figure for free cash will be higher than $2 billion.

The board also approved a $1 billion share buyback. This shows confidence in the future of the company, right? Well, last week, Visa raised its dividend by 19%. There's nothing like a dividend increase and a share buyback at the same time.

As can be seen, Visa is one of those cash-flow stories backed by an impressive brand and a product that is used by everyone on a daily basis. How can you not feel comfortable owning Visa? People love plastic, and even if they are wary of credit cards, the company has plenty of debit card products to capture value from an increasingly cashless society.

There are other choices in this industry: Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), MasterCard (NYSE: MA), American Express (NYSE: AXP). These competitors all have their advantages and disadvantages, but I think Visa is a great trademark that will make shareholders who are patient and hold through the down cycles, as well as the up cycles, very happy. In fact, I remember remarking to a friend of mine that Visa should be looked at when it was heading toward a 52-week low during the height of the recession mania.

I don't think he bought any shares, but it's okay. We'll get corrections and dips. When Visa is down, you'll definitely want to perform some due diligence. Actually, you'll want to do that even if Visa continues higher from here. And if you're skeptical (which you should be about any investment idea), just take a trip to the mall and watch all the Visa cards being run through the points of sale -- and imagine having a piece of all that economic activity. You'll get the point.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 01:52 AM

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